Who’s hot? Who’s out? Reassessing Roland Garros draws after Round 2

Second-round sessions at Grand Slams don’t come much quieter than Thursday’s at Roland Garros. Maybe it was the absence of buzz-generating names like Roger, Serena, Maria and Vika. Maybe it was the fact that no seeds have had to face each other yet. Maybe it was the slow-motion slog between Andy Murray and Martin Klizan that ate up three-and-a-half prime hours on Chatrier. Whatever it was, aside from an obligatory racquet smash from Nick Kyrgios, there wasn’t a lot of must-see tennis in Paris.

That gives us a chance to look ahead. With the second round complete, the fields pared from 128 to a manageable 32 and the first seed-vs-seed showdowns upon us, here’s an updated assessment of both singles events.

“Wide open” was how most of us described the WTA draw at the start of the week, and it’s still anyone’s major title to win. The top seed, Angelique Kerber, is gone, as are the No. 6 and 7 seeds, Dominika Cibulkova and Johanna Konta.

But instead of the expected all-out chaos, there has been a creeping sense or order on the women’s side. While Kerber succumbed in her opener, several other contenders have had an early hiccup and lived to tell about it. Karolina Pliskova, Garbiñe Muguruza, Elina Svitolina, Agnieszka Radwanska and Svetlana Kuznetsova each went to a third set in the second round. Simona Halep hasn’t panicked at the first sign of trouble. Sam Stosur, Venus Williams and Caroline Wozniacki have cruised. And Kristina Mladenovic, after a disastrous start—she looked ready to retire with a back injury in her opener—somehow survived.

You have to think that most, if not all, of these players will be stronger for having made it through their early nerves. There will be upsets, of course, and the competition only gets tougher with each round. But it’s also possible to see this draw hewing close to form, which isn’t something many of us would have predicted on Monday.

Better off than when they started:

Stosur: She hasn’t dropped a set, and she’s in the Kerber section at the top of the draw.

Venus: She also hasn’t dropped a set, and she won’t have to beat anyone in the Top 30 to reach the quarters.

Muguruza: She has that Paris feeling again.

Halep: The early nerves should be settled, she says her ankle is “OK” and there aren’t any power players near her who can blow her off the court.

Potential showdown to watch:

Muguruza vs. Mladenovic: Either of these women could build up enough steam to win the tournament, but they’re on course for a fourth-round collision.

Still the favorite: Halep

While a sense of order is creeping into the women’s tournament, it has been there from the beginning on the men’s side. Twenty of the 32 seeds have advanced to the third round. That includes each of the Top 4—Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka.

Of those four, Nadal has looked the best; he reminds me of how he was playing before he had to withdraw at this stage last year. Wawrinka hasn’t dropped a set, either, though he has had to go to a couple of tiebreakers. Djokovic hasn’t looked all that comfortable to me, despite having not lost a set. But if any of them have appeared vulnerable, it’s Murray. He was nearly pushed to five sets by Martin Klizan, and on Saturday he’ll have to face Juan Martin del Potro.

Better off than when they started:

John Isner: While much of the U.S. ship has been sinking, Isner seems to have a little wind in his sails. He plays young Russian Karen Khachanov next, and as far as fourth-round matches go, facing Murray wouldn’t be the worst option right now.

Fernando Verdasco: He followed up his upset over Alexander Zverev with a five-set win over Pierre-Hugues Herbert. Beating Pablo Cuevas and Kei Nishikori would put him in the quarters.

Gael Monfils: Dustin Brown wanted to get into a hot-dog contest in their opener, but a business-like Monfils wasn’t having any of it. A fourth-round meeting with Wawrinka would be popular.

Kyle Edmund, Kevin Anderson, Feliciano Lopez, Marin Cilic: One of those four will be a quarterfinalist.

Nadal: Two seeds in Rafa’s section, Gilles Simon and Jack Sock, are gone.

Grigor Dimitrov: Just when I thought he was burned out, he wins his first two matches in Paris since 2013 without dropping a set.

Possible showdowns to watch:

Djokovic vs. Lucas Pouille: They could play in the fourth round; Pouille has looked sharp so far, and he’d have the home crowd behind him.

Nadal vs. Roberto Bautista Agut: This could be a testy fourth-rounder for Rafa; RBA always competes.

Monfils vs. Wawrinka: This could be a potentially explosive round-of-16 encounter.

Murray vs. Del Potro: They tend to stage epics.

Dominic Thiem vs. Steve Johnson: A war of the forehands; how much emotion does Johnson have left?

Still the favorite: Nadal

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