Who will kick their seasons into high gear in Madrid? A WTA preview

The gang is almost all here. Befitting one of the WTA’s four Premier Mandatory events, Madrid has drawn a star-studded women’s field. Among the tour’s current top-level contenders, only Venus and Serena Williams won’t be visiting the Caja Magica this year. The clay season has hit obviously high gear, and there are a lot of women looking to kick their own seasons into high gear as well. Here’s a look ahead at who might succeed.

Naomi Osaka says she’s not the world’s greatest dirt-baller, and she’s right. She favors power, on a surface that rewards patience, so it’s not surprising that she has yet to make any serious inroads during this stretch of the season. Last year in Madrid, she lost her opening match to Shuai Zhang in straight sets. But if there is a location where she might start to find some form on dirt, it’s here—the courts are a little quicker, and the ball flies a little faster in the central Spanish altitude.

Osaka, who has struggled since winning the Australian Open, will try to turn the corner against Dominika Cilbukova in her opener. Her round-of-16 opponent could be Anett Kontaveit, who just reached the Stuttgart final, and her quarterfinal opponent could be either Karolina Pliskova or Aryna Sabalenka. Osaka will probably have to be in No. 1 form to reach the semis.

First-round matches to watch: Osaka vs. Cibulkova; Sabalenka vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova; Pliskova vs. Dayana Yastremska

Semifinalist: Pliskova

Simona Halep likes Madrid; she reached the final in 2014 and won it in 2016 and 2017. Will it help kick what has been a decent-but-not-amazing season up a notch as she prepares to defend her French Open title? On paper, her draw looks like an opportunity. The first seed she could face will be No. 16 Julia Georges, and her prospective quarterfinal opponent, Elina Svitolina, hasn’t played since losing her opener in Miami more than a month ago. Speaking of Svitolina, she got hot heading to Roland Garros last year; this would seem to be an ideal week for her to do it again.

And what about No. 9 seed Ash Barty, who is coming off her biggest career title, in Miami? Clay would not seem to be the Aussie’s surface of choice; she went out in the second round in Madrid last year, and to Serena Williams in the second round in Paris. But this has been a season of firsts for Barty, so why not on clay as well?

Semifinalist: Halep

Chalk up Sloane Stephens as another player who could use a deep run in Madrid to put a somewhat slow start to 2019 behind her. After losing in the first round at Indian Wells and the second round in Miami, Stephens showed a lot more grit on green clay in Charleston. Will that trend continue on quicker red clay in Madrid? She could face Victoria Azarenka in her second match.

Also here: Angelique Kerber. The German is seeded fourth, but unlike Halep and Stephens, it’s grass, rather than clay, that usually brings her back to life.

First-round matches to watch: Muguruza vs. Petra Martic; Azarenka vs. Daria Kasatkina

Semifinalist: Stephens

If there’s a Madrid group of death, it’s this one: The 2018 finalists, Petra Kvitova and Kiki Bertens, have been drawn into the same quarter. Their match last year was a three-set struggle, and so was the semifinal they played last week in Stuttgart. Kvitova won both of those contests, and she’d be favored to win this one as well, which will come at an event she has won three times.

What about Madison Keys? How much did her run to the title in Charleston, where she dropped just one set, mean for her immediate clay-court future, and her future the rest of the season? A fourth-round encounter with Kvitova on quick clay could give us one of the shootouts of the year.

First-round match to watch: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs. Jelena Ostapenko

Round-of-16 match to hope for: Kvitova vs. Keys

Semifinalist: Kvitova

Semifinals: Halep d. Pliskova; Kvitova d. Stephens

Final: Kvitova vs. Halep