Who will qualify for Shanghai?: October Update

By the end of Wimbledon, two players – Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal – had already locked up their spots at the season-ending Masters Cup in Shanghai. But with just about three weeks to ago before Shanghai begins, not a single other player has officially joined them.

This year's unusually open race is at least partly due to Federer and Nadal dominating nearly the whole year between them, leaving slim pickings for the rest of the field. Another reason is the way last week's masters Series in Madrid played out – the performances of the top contenders was expected to determine at least a few more spots, but all except David Nalbandian conspired to go out early, leaving things still in flux. Still, Madrid did determine that both Ivan Ljubicic and Andy Roddick will end up qualifying for Shanghai, though no official announcement has yet been made.

The rest have various hurdles to jump if they want to be sure of getting in, but the bar is lowered if their rivals falter.

Here's how the field currently breaks down (players in bold are playing this week):

Calendar:   Madrid   >>  Basel/St. Petersburg/Lyon   >>    Paris    >>     Madrid

OFFICIALLY QUALIFIED

Roger Federer just won his 10th title of the year in Madrid, becoming the first player to post double-digit title wins for three straight years. He'll be the heavy favorite in Shanghai, having pulled clear of the rest of the field in the second half of the year. The biggest worry for the Federer Express might be derailment in the form of fatigue or injury – if he plays both his hometown event in Basel and the Masters Series in Paris as scheduled, he'll be going into Shanghai having played three of the last four weeks.

Rafael Nadal has had a disappointing second half of the year after his incredible run from Dubai to Wimbledon, having lost in the quarterfinals or earlier of every tournament since July. He doesn't have to worry about qualifying, but could use a few big wins to boost his confidence going into the event.

UNOFFICIALLY QUALIFIED

Ivan Ljubicic and Andy Roddick will both get in – it doesn't look like there's any possible combination of results that would allow enough players to overtake them between now and Shanghai

GOOD SHOT

Nikolay Davydenko is almost certain – he will likely get in even if he doesn't play this week or next because it would take an unlikely combination of results from other players to drop him back to ninth spot. But he can clinch a berth by either winning St. Petersburg or winning a couple of matches in Paris.

David Nalbandian is now the front-runner for the three remaining 'open' spots thanks to his semifinal in Madrid. He'll qualify with a final at Basel or a quarterfinal in Paris.

It may be surprising to see James Blake benefiting so little from his recent tournament wins in Bangkok and Stockholm, but ATP players can only count five normal tour events (non-Slam or Masters Series) in their points total for the year-ending championships – because Blake already had a lot of good results in such events, his net gain was small. His points from winning the title in Stockholm replaced his points from reaching the Queen's final, leaving him with a net gain of 14 points. Meanwhile, he lost in the first round of Madrid, where he had the opportunity to make up ground -- just winning one match in Madrid, for example, would have given him 15 points. He should be looking to reach the quaterfinals or semifinals in Paris.

Tommy Robredo should be targeting to outlast Blake at Paris. A decent result this week in St. Petersburg – like a quarterfinal – would help too.

IN THE RUNNING

If Fernando Gonzalez can maintain his run of form, the big result he needs – at least a semifinal in Paris – may not be such an ask. With consecutive finals in Vienna and Madrid, he's pulled himself up from the bottom of the 'outside shot' pile to being the leading threat to overtake one of the three players ahead of him. His newly-acquired physical fitness is about to be put to a real test, however – he's currently scheduled to play Basel this week and Paris next week, with a final decision on Basel expected Monday or Tuesday.

Marcos Baghdatis isn't that far behind but doesn't have the same momentum behind him. Mario Ancic needs to show something special to make a late charge – depending on how other players do, he'll have to be semifinalist or a finalist in Paris to qualify.

OUT OF THE RUNNING

Theoretically, Tommy Haas, Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer could still leap into the top eight, but they would have to run the tables in the next two weeks.  Berdych, who upset Roddick and Nadal in Paris, is the most likely to pull it off, but he received a psychological pounding from the Madrid crowd last week and may not have the stamina required for the run.

Lleyton Hewitt ruled himself out when made it known that he would not be playing again this year because of a knee injury. The rest of the contenders – Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, and Jarrko Nieminen – just couldn't find the results to give themselves a chance (see September 25th list).

The calculations and projections in this story are unofficial and may use forward-looking information that can be affected or changed by future events.