Who will qualify for Shanghai?: Update

NOVEMBER 4  And that's a wrap, with David Nalbandian securing the first alternate position at the Masters Cup in Shanghai by defeating Rafael Nadal in Paris. Nalbandian says he doesn't know yet whether he'll make the trip, but two years ago, he got in as an alternate and ended up winning the event.

The final list of qualifiers is Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Nikolay Davydenko, Andy Roddick, David Ferrer, Fernando Gonzalez, and Richard Gasquet.

Calendar:            Vienna        >>  Madrid   >>   Basel                   >>   Paris   >>  Shanghai 
Stockholm St. Petersburg
Moscow Lyon

NOVEMBER 3 Rafael Nadal did the hard work for Richard Gasquet by beating Marcos Baghdatis in the Paris semifinals and sending Gasquet into Shanghai. The Fenchman, who himself lost his semifinal to David Nalbandian, grabs the eighth and last spot for the season-ending Masters Cup.

With Andy Roddick thinking about missing the event to concentrate on the Davis Cup final the following week, the ninth-placed player stands a chance of getting in. Tommy Robredo is currently in that spot, but David Nalbandian could replace him if he wins Paris. If he loses the final against Nadal, Nalbandian will remain in his current 14th position and will not be the reserve player.

Andy Murray, who will finish tenth or eleventh, could be the second reserve player, but he has already said he will not travel to Shanghai only as an alternate and will play only if enough players have pulled out before the event begins. The second most likely candidate to pull out is the beleagured Nikolay Davydenko, but he has given no indication that he is thinking of not playing. Behind Murray is Tommy Haas.

NOVEMBER 2 Only one Masters Cup spot remains up for grabs after Friday.

Fernando Gonzalez clinched a berth courtesy of Mikhail Youzhny's loss to Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals of Paris. Youzhny's defeat means that Gonzalez, currently seventh in the race to Shanghai, cannot drop below eighth and is thus guaranteed a place in the 8-man field.

Richard Gasquet is in pole position for the final spot after a quarterfinal victory over Andy Murray. The only other player with a chance is Marcos Baghdatis. He ended Tommy Robredo's Shanghai hope but can himself only qualify if he wins Paris and Gasquet loses in the semifinals. Baghdatis faces Nadal in the semfinals while Gasquet takes on David Nalbandian.

With Andy Roddick not certain to play because of the Davis Cup final the week after Shanghai, the ninth player could also end up playing. Robredo currently sits in ninth, with Murray behind him in tenth.

NOVEMBER 1 Three all-contender matchups in Paris on Thursday meant three players would definitely be eliminated from the race to Shanghai. Two of of the ousted turned out to be leading candidates – Tommy Haas and James Blake – while the third was longshot Guillermo Canas. Their respective conquerors were Mikhail Youzhny, local favorite Richard Gasquet and Tommy Robredo.

Andy Murray and Marcos Baghdatis also kept going while Tomas Berdych was eliminated. David Nalbandian marked his second consecutive victory over Roger Federer on Thursday, but ironically fell out of the race to Shanghai when those in front pulled too far ahead to be overtaken.

All of which means that Robredo, Murray and Gasquet move into the top positions, with Youzhny and Baghdatis needing to reach the final to have a chance. Murray and Gasquet face each other in the quarterfinals, and the winner has an excellent shot at the final now that Federer is no longer a potential semifinal opponent. Robredo goes up against Baghdatis, while Youzhny faces second seed Rafael Nadal.

By the end of Friday, there will be no more than four players still be in contention for the last two spots in Shanghai – seventh-placed Fernando Gonzalez, the winner of Gasquet-Murray, the winner of Robredo-Baghdatis and Youzhny (if he defeats Nadal).

OCTOBER 31 The 'G8' of top contenders for the last spot in Shanghai became the G6 today as Ivan Ljubicic and Carlos Moya both lost in Paris. Longshots Juan Igancio Chela and Ivo Karlovic also exited.

Andy Murray shook off any ill effects from his car accident on Monday and stayed in the hunt with a straight-sets win.

Richard Gasquet and James Blake produced clutch performances against talented Frenchmen to stay in the running, but one of them will defintely exit tomorrow – they play each other in the third round. Two other guaranteed eliminations will take place when Tommy Haas goes up against Mikhail Youzhny and Tommy Robredo faces Guillermo Canas.

OCTOBER 30 After losing his opening match in Paris to Mikhail Youzhny, Fernando Gonzalez has left the table with 381 points -- just one more than he came in with. He'll still qulify for Shanghai unless two contenders behind him both reach the final, but now has to wait and see what happens during the rest of the week.

Meanwhile, Tommy Haas, Tommy Robredo and Tomas Berdych stayed in contention by reaching the third round - they're among eight players hoping to outperform each other and take the eighth and final Masters Cup spot. Another one of those eight is Andy Murray, who plays tomorrow - he's been on a hot streak this fall, but his form is now in some doubt after a car accident on Monday night left him with a stiff back. He described it as "nothing serious." Longshot Juan Monaco lost and is now out of the race.

OCTOBER 29  Juan Carlos Ferrero and Paul-Henri Mathieu say goodbye in Paris and to their faint hopes of qualifying for Shanghai.

OCTOBER 28 Six of the eight available berths at the Masters Cup have been settled, but a furious dash for the last two spots is underway heading into the final week of play before Shanghai. Fernando Gonzalez has put himself in a fairly good position going in – he's 51 points ahead of the rest of the pack, so any chaser will have to reach at least the final to overtake him for the seventh spot.

But there's no shortage of chasers, all of whom will also be competing with each other for the last berth. Andy Murray vaulted from 18th to 11th after winning St. Petersburg and is the latest to enter the fray. Tommy Haas, Tommy Robredo, James Blake and Murray are only 4 points apart, and Tomas Berdych, Richard Gasquet, Carlos Moya and Ivan Ljubicic are within 10 points of them. This group of eight going for eighth ("G8") is in a position to determine their own fate.

A win would clinch any of them a spot in Shanghai, and a final would probably do it too.* Barring a run like that, it'll come down to how they perform relative to each other – e.g. by reaching the semifinal while the others lose in the quarterfinals or earlier.

The players behind them need to reach at least the final, and also need the players ahead of them to lose early.

The draw may turn out to be one of the most important factors in deciding who gets in – almost all the "G8" players most likely to produce a deep run at Paris have landed in the top half. Blake, Murray, Gasquet, Berdych and Moya are all there, along with dangerous floaters who could derail their campaigns – e.g. Ivo Karlovic, David Nalbandian, Mario Ancic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Sebastien Grosjean. As if that wasn't enough, the section also contains two formidable obstacles in the form of Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. The recently-qualified David Ferrer is there as well.

In the bottom half are Gonzalez, Haas, Robredo, Ljubicic, Mikhail Youzhny and Juan Ignacio Chela. Rafael Nadal, who made a lackluster exit in Madrid, is the top seed in that half, and beleagured defending champ Nikolay Davydenko is also there. They can all expect their paths to be a little easier than their counterparts in the top half, but the matches still have to be won.

*A "G8" player who reaches the final would not finish in the top 8 for Shanghai only if another "G8" player wins the tournament and Gonzalez reaches the quarterfinals.

OCTOBER 17 The early exits of several seeds in Madrid have clinched Andy Roddick the fifth spot in the year-end Masters Masters Cup, and put David Ferrer and Fernando Gonzalez in a strong position to get the sixth and seventh slots in Shanghai.

That leaves the eighth and final spot the only open one – but wide open, with Tommy Haas, Tommy Robredo, James Blake, Richard Gasquet, Tomas Berdych, Carlos Moya and Ivan Ljubicic all in the running. Several other players also have a small chance of qualifying for Shanghai, but they'll have to sweep the field over the next two weeks to do it.

Most of the players still active in Madrid have either already qualified or are out of the running – but the outcome of the Masters event could turn out to be crucial in deciding the year-end No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 rankings between Roger Federer, Rafael and Novak Djokovic.

CAN GAIN GROUND NEXT WEEK (BASEL, ST. PETERSBURG, LYON)
Ferrer, Gonzalez, Haas, Murray

CAN GAIN GROUND ONLY IN TWO WEEKS' TIME (PARIS MASTERS)*
Blake, Youzhny, Moya, Ljubicic

Want a more detailed description? >> See the original breakdown

OCTOBER 8 The race to qualify for one of the eight spots in the year-ending Masters Cup in Shanghai continues, with only three of the berths realistically up for grabs.

Very little definitive movement will take place until Madrid, but David Ferrer is now sitting solidly in sixth place thanks to his title victory in Tokyo – he'll only be in real danger if three players right behind him win a Masters Series title or reach a couple of finals. Metz winner Tommy Robredo and Tokyo finalist Richard Gasquet moved from having outside shots to good shots if they can keep up their recent performances. Metz finalist Andy Murray and Metz semifinalist Guillermo Canas also kept their slight hopes alive.

Here's the outlook as ATP tournaments in Vienna Stockholm and Moscow get underway:

OUT OF REALISTIC CONTENTION AFTER LAST WEEK
Baghdatis, Ferrero, Monaco, Mathieu

NOT PLAYING THIS WEEK
Roddick, Gasquet, Robredo, Berdych, Hewitt

CAN GAIN GROUND THIS WEEK
Ferrer (STOCKHOLM), Gonzalez (VIENNA), Haas (STOCKHOLM), Murray (MOSCOW), Canas (VIENNA)

CANNOT GAIN MUCH GROUND THIS WEEK**
Davydenko (MOSCOW), Blake (STOCKHOLM), Ljubicic (VIENNA), Youzhny (MOSCOW), Chela (VIENNA)

* Because only 5 smaller events (non-Grand Slam and non-Masters Series) can be counted in a player's points total, players who have already recorded five good results at such events this year can only have a small net gain – for every result added on to their total, an earlier one is subtracted.

*

*For example [as of October 8], if James Blake wins Stockholm this week, he will gain 45 points in the Race to Shanghai and lose 15 from his Houston semifinal earlier this year – a net gain of 30 points. Fernando Gonzalez, who is 10 points ahead of Blake, does not have to subtract anything. If Gonzalez reaches the semifinals of Vienna (22 points), he'll stay ahead of Blake even if Blake wins the Stockholm title.

*

In Masters Series events, the playing field is level and every point earned counts towards a players' total.  And because the two Masters events in Madrid and Paris have the most points up for grabs, they'll be critical in deciding who finally qualifies for Shanghai.

The calculations in this story are unofficial and may use forward-looking information that can be affected or changed by future events.