Who Will Win: Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev, 2024 Australian Open men’s final

For the first time in a decade, someone other than Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, or Roger Federer will become the Australian Open men’s champion.

Djokovic took his first loss in Melbourne since 2018 at the hands of surging rival Jannik Sinner, who has taken his late-2023 momentum to new heights less than a month into 2024. He will face former No. 1 Daniil Medvedev, who toppled Alexander Zverev in an epic five-set comeback to reach his fifth major final.

Who will win the 2024 Australian Open? David Kane and Stephanie Livaudais discuss the finalists in a Drop Shot Debate:

David’s Pick: Jannik Sinner

So synonymous is Novak Djokovic with the Australian Open it was shocking to realize that, after stunning the 10-time champion in four sets, Jannik Sinner still has one more match to play. But the 22-year-old has truly come of age at the Happy Slam, rolling into the first major final of his career with the loss of just one set. Rather than succumb to the déjà vu of possibly losing a Grand Slam match to Djokovic from two sets up for the second time in 18 months, Sinner hunkered down and maintained a near-flawless serving performance, one that didn’t allow the top seed a single break point opportunity.

Will the emotional hurdle of clearing Djokovic on such a big stage take anything out of Sinner as he prepares for the biggest match of his career? The No. 4 seed wisely avoided the Australian warm-up tournaments, having played a busy fall that saw him play 22 matches in two months (winning 20). Flanked by a phenomenal coaching team in Darren Cahill and Simone Vagnozzi, Sinner has stayed calm and focused through six matches. All that’s missing is the trophy.

READ MORE: Jannik Sinner beats Novak Djokovic in Australian Open semifinals to reach first Grand Slam final

Steph’s Pick: Daniil Medvedev

After being painted as a villain in Zverev’s storyline on Netflix, Daniil Medvedev played that part to a tee as he stunned the German from two-sets-to-love to return to his third Australian Open final in four years. Now, he has the chance to spoil another fairy tale moment for Sinner in the Italian’s first major final—and make his own Melbourne "dream" a reality.

His next opponent will be coming down from the emotional high of toppling the 10-time champ, and will be shouldering the weight of national expectation as he seeks to become the first Italian man to win a Grand Slam since 1976. Medvedev, the 2021 US Open winner, has already been there and done all that. Plus, his confounding brand of tennis, tailor-made for diffusing power players, has left Sinner grasping for answers in the past: Medvedev leads their rivalry 6-3, tied at 1-1 in outdoor hardcourt matches.

In Melbourne, he came up short to Djokovic in 2021 and was stopped in the 2022 final by Rafael Nadal and a jeering Rod Laver Arena crowd—an experience that rattled him for a long time afterward. This time around, Medvedev has kept all the drama on the court—his battle with Zverev was his third five-setter of the fortnight—and he's dialed up the charm to bring Aussie fans back on his side. The kid that once "stopped dreaming” started working on himself, and two years on from that crushing defeat, the stage is set for that old "dream" to finally come true.

READ MORE: Daniil Medvedev plays the ultimate villain by crushing Alexander Zverev’s Australian Open dreams