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Who would be in the Top 10 if the rankings went back to normal today?
If we were just counting raw points from the last 52 weeks, Daniil Medvedev would be just a few hundred points from No. 1, Andrey Rublev would be No. 3 and Victoria Azarenka, Iga Swiatek, Jennifer Brady and Elise Mertens would all be in the women’s Top 5.
Published Mar 17, 2021
With travel restrictions, calendar changes and major tournaments like Wimbledon not being played last year, the ATP and WTA’s revised ranking systems have offered a reasonable solution in a difficult climate by permitting players to retain points from 2019 and early 2020 on their totals.
But it can be hard to tell who’s actually in form at the moment from those rankings.
Below are what the Top 10 on the ATP and WTA rankings would look like if everything went back to normal today. Since the tour-level events were suspended at this time last year, these lists represent who’s accumulated the most ranking points over the last 52 weeks (but effectively since the restart).
What the ATP Top 10 would be right now without the revised ranking system:
No. 1: Novak Djokovic (5,830 points)
No. 2: Daniil Medvedev (5,495 points)
No. 3: Andrey Rublev (3,825 points)
No. 4: Dominic Thiem (3,535 points)
No. 5: Rafael Nadal (3,300 points)
No. 6: Alexander Zverev (3,115 points)
No. 7: Stefanos Tsitsipas (2,795 points)
No. 8: Diego Schwartzman (2,210 points)
No. 9: Milos Raonic (1,505 points)
No. 10: Pablo Carreno Busta (1,500 points)
Eight of the Top 10 on the official ATP rankings would still be in the raw Top 10, with one very notable difference: Rublev, who’s won four ATP 500s and reached the quarterfinals of all three majors since the restart—which no other man or woman has done—would be ranked No. 3 instead of No. 8. Also, Djokovic’s lead over Medvedev at No. 1 would be just 335 points (it’s 2,068 on the official rankings).
Roger Federer and Matteo Berrettini, who are currently No. 6 and No. 10 on the official ATP rankings, would be replaced in the Top 10 by Raonic and Carreno Busta, who are currently No. 19 and No. 15.
And No. 11 and No. 12 on the raw Top 10 may surprise you: Australian Open semifinalist Aslan Karatsev and French Open quarterfinalist Jannik Sinner, who are No. 42 and No. 32 on the official Top 10.
What the WTA Top 10 would be right now without the revised ranking system:
No. 1: Naomi Osaka (4,770 points)
No. 2: Victoria Azarenka (3,061 points)
No. 3: Iga Swiatek (3,002 points)
No. 4: Jennifer Brady (2,743 points)
No. 5: Elise Mertens (2,621 points)
No. 6: Garbine Muguruza (2,355 points)
No. 7: Aryna Sabalenka (2,097 points)
No. 8: Serena Williams (1,980 points)
No. 9: Simona Halep (1,950 points)
No. 10: Sofia Kenin (1,813 points)
Unlike the men’s Top 10, the women’s Top 10 would look almost completely different. Osaka, who’s gone 21-0 and won two of the three majors since the restart, would be a clear-cut No. 1, but No. 2 through No.6 aren’t even in the Top 10 of the official WTA rankings right now. Things return to normal at the lower end of the raw Top 10 with Sabalenka, Serena, Halep and Kenin at No. 7 through No. 10.
Petra Kvitova, who’s currently No. 10 on the official WTA rankings, would be next out at No. 11.