Will Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner meet again in Indian Wells?

For most of the past three years, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have been the co-favorites whenever they’ve entered the same tournament. They’re the top two seeds again in Indian Wells, but this time it feels a little different. Alcaraz, with his wins at the US Open and the Australian Open, has opened up some daylight between himself and his rival. The Spaniard, a two-time champ in IW, is the favorite; the Italian, who has never made a semi there, is the underdog.

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History says that neither of these two will maintain the upper hand for long. Can Sinner close the gap in IW, or will Alcaraz stay perfect in 2026?

Or could someone else upset their two-man apple cart? Here’s a look at the men’s draw.

First Quarter

Everything has been coming up Carlitos. He’s 12-0 in 2026, and 27-1 at the last four majors. Now he’s returning to one his favorite events, where he has won twice. Is there anyone in his quarter who has a prayer of stopping him?

At first glance, the answer would seem to be: Probably not. Alex De Minaur is the No, 2 seed in this section, but he’s 0-6 against Alcaraz. Alexander Bublik has giant-killing skills, but he would need to make the quarters to face him, something he has never done here. Casper Ruud has had his duels with Alcaraz, and likes slow hard courts, but he’s had a middling start to the year. Botic Van de Zandschulp, a possible third-round opponent, may have the best résumé, having beaten Alcaraz at the US Open two years ago.

Wild Card: Michael Zheng. The New Jersey native and Columbia University senior takes on Arthur Cazeaux of France

First-round match to watch: Grigor Dimitrov vs. Terence Atmane. There should be shot-making

Quarterfinal: Alcaraz vs. De Minaur

Semifinalist: Alcaraz

Second Quarter

Novak Djokovic took awhile to announce that he was coming to Indian Wells. Which probably isn’t surprising, since he hasn’t tended to stick around the desert for long in recent years. He has failed to make it past the fourth round in his last five attempts, dating back to 2017.

Still, Djokovic is a four-time IW champ, and he’ll make the draw more interesting for as long as he’s in it. After his run to the final in Australia, he must feel like he has chance to win some matches in the desert. His road could look like this: Mpetshi Perricard in the second round; Moutet or Hurkacz in the third; Draper or Cerundolo in the fourth; Medvedev or Fritz in the quarters.

The first step for Medvedev, of course, is making it to the site; right now he’s stuck in Dubai due to the war in Iran. If he can get there, though, he should be contender. As much as he claims to hate the courts in Indian Wells, he has made the final twice on them, and he’s coming off a title run in Dubai. A fourth-round collision with Taylor Fritz could be on the table.

Returning: Jack Draper. He’s the defending champion, but is just finding his feet again after prolonged absence due to an upper arm injury

Quarterfinal: Medvedev vs. Cerundolo

Semifinalist: Medvedev

Third Quarter

If there’s a quarter that looks open to multiple scenarios, it’s this one, where Alexander Zverev and Lorenzo Musetti are the top seeds. The German is 13-9 at Indian Wells, and has never been past the quarters; the Italian is 3-5 and has never made it out of the third round.

Who might take advantage of the opening?

Flavio Cobolli just won the title in Acapulco, over Frances Tiafoe in the final. Perhaps unfortunately for them, they could play in the third round.

Félix Auger-Aliassime, over the past month, has won a title, made a final, and made a semi. His potential third-round opponent, Andrey Rublev, is stuck with Medvedev in Dubai.

How about Arthur Fils or Brandon Nakashima? The Frenchman has looked good in his return, while the American will be as close to his California home as he’s going to get.

First-round matches to watch:

Alexei Popyrin vs. Jenson Brooksby

Matteo Berrettini vs. Adrian Mannarino

Quarterfinal: Auger-Aliassime vs. Tiafoe

Semifinalist: Auger-Aliassime

Fourth Quarter

For Sinner, Indian Wells has been something less than tennis paradise. Two years ago, he tested positive for a banned substance that accidentally made it into his system at this event. Last year he was banned because of that test. He has yet to make the final, and is 0-2 against Alcaraz here.

Can he wipe that history out with a winning run this time? He’s still a master of hard courts, and he’ll be the favorite against everyone other than Alcaraz. That includes the seeds nearest him—Paul, Etcheverry, and Khachanov, who is another Dubai castaway.

The opponent who likely looms largest for Sinner is his potential quarterfinal foe, Ben Shelton. Sinner has handled him in a series of big matches recently, but Shelton would be at home here, and he’s coming off a title in Dallas. The American, of course, may face his own obstacles, including two of his countrymen, Reilly Opelka and Learner Tien, in his first two rounds.

Player Who Could Use a Win: Joao Fonseca. He’s 1-3 in 2026

First-round match with 2019 vibes: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Denis Shapovalov

Quarterfinal: Sinner vs. Shelton

Semifinalist: Sinner

Champion: Alcaraz d. Sinner