Will the American title drought in Indian Wells end this year?

There’s no question that players are inspired to perform at their best at their “home” tournaments, and the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, Calif., is no exception. However, despite its status as one of the crown jewels on the ATP and WTA tours, no player from the U.S. has won a singles title since Andre Agassi and Serena Williams came out on top in 2001.

This year, a strong contingent of Americans will look to end the drought, headlined by six who could have the best opportunities for success.

While America’s top-ranked male has yet to win a title this season, he’s been on a bit of a tear of late. Isner will be coming into the first Masters event of the year with semifinal showings in his last three tournaments, all on hard courts, with the most recent final-four finish in Acapulco. There, he lost to eventual champion Nick Kyrgios in a third-set tiebreak, which has been somewhat symbolic of the run he’s been on: had he capitalized on a few opportunities here and there, Isner could be coming off three final-round finishes. He’s had success at Indian Wells in the past, having reached the championship round in 2012, and he’s the defending doubles champion with compatriot Jack Sock. Aside from those past experiences, Isner can look at the fact that he’s playing better than he was last year around this time, when he was able to build upon that Indian Wells doubles run and go on to win the Miami Open for the biggest title of his career.

Like Isner last year, Stephens was struggling entering the “Sunshine Double” stretch of tournaments. She went 1-1 in Indian Wells, but then went on to capture the Miami Open for her second major title in six months following her surprise run at the 2017 US Open. Her third-round showing at Indian Wells last year was her best finish there since 2014 when she advanced to the quarterfinals. Stephens, at her best on hard courts, will be entering the tournament this year fresh off a surprise second-round loss in Acapulco. Despite that, and having not reached a final so far this year, she will be on the short list of title contenders.

The last American woman to claim the singles crown in Indian Wells, Williams will be among the top-four favorites—if not the outright one—to come out at this year’s edition of the tournament. After skipping the Premier Mandatory event for more than a decade, Williams famously returned in 2015 and reached the semifinals, then followed that up with a final run the next year. Last year, she dipped her toes back into the competitive waters shortly after becoming a mother and made it to the third round. In her only official tournament in 2019, Williams advanced to the quarterfinals of the Australian Open. Unable to capitalize on her late-match chances against Karolina Pliskova then, Williams will be eager to get back in the winners’ circle.

One of the breakthrough performers at the Australian Open, where he reached the quarterfinals with wins over Kevin Anderson and Grigor Dimitrov, Tiafoe has struggled since. Entering the New York Open as the second seed, Tiafoe dropped his opening match to Jason Jung, ranked more than a 100 places below him. He next played the Delray Beach Open, where he was the defending champion, but fell in the first round there to the unseeded veteran Dan Evans. In Acapulco, Tiafoe broke his losing streak with a first-round win, but fell in the second round to Mackenzie McDonald. Despite the relatively poor run of form, there is reason for optimism: As he demonstrated in Melbourne, Tiafoe can rise to the occasion at the biggest events, and few of them are more prestigious in North America than Indian Wells.

Surprisingly, the last final the 24-year-old reached was in 2017 at the US Open, where she fell in straight sets to her countrywoman Stephens. Despite a championship-round drought of her own, Keys is capable of making a deep run in the desert this year with a game tailor-made for hard courts. One of the most-powerful ball-strikers on the WTA Tour, Keys can blast through the majority of the field. Belief and health will go a long way in determining her chances, but provided both of those are in order, she could be well-positioned to improve upon her best showing in Indian Wells, which was a fourth-round finish in 2017.

The former two-time NCAA champion has had the two best performances of her burgeoning pro career on hard courts over the past 12 months: she advanced to the semifinals at the Miami Open last year and posted a last-four finish at the Australian Open a couple of months ago. She appears to be firmly ensconced in the Top 30, and will look to rebound from her opening-round loss in Acapulco to two-time major winner Victoria Azarenka.