Wimbledon Betting Preview: Cameron Norrie vs. Frances Tiafoe

I’m envious of the fans that will be in attendance for a second-round meeting between Cameron Norrie and Frances Tiafoe at Wimbledon. These are two very talented players with big personalities, and they should put on a show at the All England Club. Tiafoe is understandably the betting favorite coming into this one. He’s one of the most popular players in the world, and he’s ranked nearly 50 spots ahead of Norrie in the ATP rankings. However, Norrie is the home favorite, has always enjoyed playing this event and has played Tiafoe close in the past. There’s no way he should be out there at +142 odds.

Tiafoe has won two straight against Norrie, but one win was a 6-4, 6-4 victory at Indian Wells in 2023, and the other was a 6-4, 7-6 (4) win in Vienna last year. Both of those matches were competitive, and Norrie does have one win over Tiafoe under his belt. It’s not like this is some extremely lopsided head-to-head series. That said, there won’t be some sort of mental edge for Tiafoe when he heads to the court. If anything, Tiafoe is a player that is used to having the crowd in his corner, but he’s going to have to deal with a pro-Norrie atmosphere.

Stylistically, it’s also hard not to like what Norrie brings to the table on grass. While Tiafoe is a slightly better server, Norrie is plenty capable of cruising through his service games. Tiafoe only has a 16.4% break percentage on this surface in his career. Meanwhile, Norrie’s break percentage is a little closer to 20% on the grass. That might not seem like much of a difference, but it definitely could play a role in deciding who wins this one. I also like Norrie's flat backand, which barely clears the net and can be tough for opponents to dig out, especially on grass.

Norrie is going to need to have a solid day from the forehand wing. That was the swing shot the last time these two met. In Vienna, Tiafoe had a forehand Shot Quality of 8.1 and Norrie had a forehand Shot Quality of 5.0, according to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations. Tiafoe was also well aware of how poorly Norrie was hitting from that side of the court, so he targeted it relentlessly. I’m not sure he’ll be able to do that this time around. After a slow start to the season, Norrie has started to find his confidence again. He’s 9-4 in his last 13 matches, and he’s hitting that forehand a lot better. In 2024, Norrie only made 84.0% of his forehands. In 2025, he's making 87.0%. That's a significant increase when it comes to finding the court.

This just feels like a coin flip, but I personally think the coin is a little weighted towards the Brit’s side with this one being played in London. Norrie is worth a shot at these enticing odds.

Pick: Norrie ML (+142)