APTOPIX Britain Wimbledon Tennis

When we first got a glimpse at the Wimbledon draw, it looked like Aryna Sabalenka was going to be in some trouble early. Many thought the Belarusian was heading towards a third-round meeting with Marketa Vondrousova, who beat her in straight sets, 6-2, 6-4, in the semifinals in Berlin a few weeks ago. Considering Vondrousova’s grass-court prowess, that could have been a tough matchup for the world No. 1.

But you know what? Playing an in-form Emma Raducanu, with the crowd in her corner, might not be much easier. That’s why I’m backing the Brit to win a set, but I’m also going to sprinkle the moneyline.

These two met for the first time in last year’s BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, where Sabalenka earned a 6-3, 7-5 win in a hard-fought match. However, Raducanu is peaking coming into this one; she has won 15 of her last 22 matches. The Brit also happens to be playing on her favorite surface, and she should have sky-high confidence after having earned a 6-3, 6-3 win over Vondrousova last round. That was arguably the best match Raducanu has played since winning the US Open.

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When Raducanu is hitting the ball cleanly, she can make anybody uncomfortable. Sabalenka isn’t an exception. Sure, the Belarusian can put a little more on her groundstrokes, but Raducanu has plenty of punch herself. She’s also a little better at defending the court. Against Vondrousova, her ability to steal points was out of this world.

I also have some serious concerns over how Sabalenka is going to manage a pro-Raducanu crowd. I do think it’s hard for British players to play well at Wimbledon (just ask Jack Draper), but with nobody expecting a Raducanu win, she should be able to go out there and play freely. And in this specific situation, the crowd should give her a lift. That said, if Raducanu doesn’t fall apart as a server, or spray unforced errors, I think she’ll be in this match.

Pick: Raducanu +1.5 Sets (+106)