Sitting at a career-high No. 55, Hailey Baptiste is into the third round at Wimbledon for the first time.

Mirra Andreeva looked very beatable running up to Wimbledon, as she lost to Magdalena Frech in Berlin and Linda Noskova in Bad Homburg. That Noskova loss has aged a little better with the Czech up-and-comer looking dynamite at SW19, but it was still a bit puzzling considering Andreeva’s previous dominance in that head-to-head series. Well, Andreeva has looked a bit sharper in London, earning straight-set wins over Mayar Sherif and Lucia Bronzetti. The problem is that Andreeva still hasn’t reached her peak level, and she’s going to need to against Hailey Baptiste in the Round of 32.

Andreeva now has a winning record on grass, sitting at 6-5 in 11 career matches on the surface. However, there’s no denying this is the worst surface for her right now. Andreeva has done a lot of work to add some punch to her serve and forehand, and we have seen it pay off this year. Her hold percentage is a career-high 74.9% and a bigger forehand helped her win multiple 1000-level events early in the season. But in much quicker conditions, opponents with bigger games can bully her a bit. They find it a little easier to win quick points, and they can rush Andreeva from the baseline. I expect Baptiste to do that here.

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Hailey Baptiste on having Frances Tiafoe's support

Baptiste is one of the most talented players on the WTA Tour. She has a big serve, a massive game from the back of the court and some real touch. When it comes to some of the bigger hitters in the women’s game, you’d be hard pressed to find anyone that plays with more variety than the American. Baptiste has just had some trouble putting it all together. But this year, Baptiste is a career-best 18-10, and she has played some of her best tennis over the last couple of months.

If Baptiste doesn’t completely come unglued as a server, I see her really frustrating Andreeva with her style of play. And we have seen lately that Andreeva can lose her cool rather easily, and her opponents have been taking advantage of that.

Considering all of that, I’m playing Baptiste to win a set in this match, as I’d be genuinely stunned if she can’t at least force a decider. But I’ll also have something on the Baptiste moneyline at +252. When I first saw the women’s draw, I called that this would be Andreeva's endgame. I'll happily put some money where my mouth is.

Pick: Baptiste +1.5 Sets (-119)