With Indian Wells win over Federer, Thiem's future looks much brighter

“He’s not going to die wondering.”

That was the reaction Darren Cahill had in the commentator’s booth after watching Dominic Thiem hit a screaming forehand winner past Roger Federer on Sunday.

I’d never heard the term, but it was appropriate—both as a description of the shot, and of Thiem’s effort over the final weekend in Indian Wells. The Austrian has always had the power, the speed, and the weapons from both sides, but for all of the effort he put into every swing, he often seemed to leave something on the table. Entering more tournaments than any other top player, he played for the long haul rather than for the moment. Coming to Indian Wells, he had reached just two Masters 1000 finals, both on clay in Madrid, and he had just three match wins in 2019. In the States, at least, Thiem was most famous for two epic five-set losses at the US Open, to Juan Martin del Potro in 2017 and Rafael Nadal in 2018.

After 10 days in the desert, all of that has changed—it can happen fast in tennis. With his 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 win over Federer, Thiem has his first Masters 1000 title, his first important win on a hard court, and a signature victory over one of the Big 4. We knew Thiem was a talent, a slugger, a speedster, a spectacular athlete; this week we saw that he can use that athleticism in the service of winning at the highest level, too.

It began not against Federer, but in Thiem’s equally close semifinal win over Milos Raonic. Serving for the match at 5-4 in the third, Thiem tightened up and fell behind. But instead of giving the break back, he went all-out to put himself in position to hit forehands, and when they came, he hit them with a fierce conviction. In the past, Thiem has played too vertically; he stood well behind the baseline and leapt straight up to take his cuts, rather than pushing forward. In the final moments against Raonic, Thiem—playing horizontally now—pressed forward and took those cuts near the service line.

That conviction carried over into the final. Federer jumped out to an early lead, won the first set, and was on the verge of extending his lead early in the second. He was playing flawlessly, but one can only keep Thiem’s power contained for so long. By the time the match had reached a third set, the terms were set: The older man’s serve would have to keep the younger man’s ground strokes at bay. Once the rallies began, Thiem gradually imposed his will. Federer’s job was not to let those rallies begin; he mostly succeeded, by making 23 of his first 28 first serves in the third set.

In that sense, this final was reminiscent of last year’s Indian Wells final, between Federer and Thiem’s fellow bash brother, Juan Martin del Potro. The result was similar, too—bash prevailed, and Federer was left to ponder what-if. Federer is rightly known for his ability to win close matches and stage comebacks, to find his opponent’s weakness and choose the right shot for the right moment. But every so often that’s not how it goes. Every so often he lets one slip, and leaves his fans wondering what just happened. This, I’m guessing, is going to be one of those times.

When Thiem served at 3-4 in the third, it looked as if Federer’s superior match skills would finally prevail. Thiem began by missing a weird, ill-chosen, short-hop forehand, and then missed another regulation forehand wide. It was 0-30, and seemed sure to become 0-40 when Federer moved Thiem out of position and lined up a forehand into an open court. Instead of hitting a winner, though, Federer sent the ball wide. Federer was able to reach break point, but when Thiem came to net on a wing and a prayer, he hit a backhand pass into the bottom of the net. Thiem held.

Still, Federer appeared to have the upper hand down the stretch. Serving at 5-5, he went up 30-15, and hit an excellent drop shot. But Thiem, who had been burned by the play earlier, went into overdrive, tracked the ball down, and flicked a brilliant crosscourt winner. Strangely, presented with a mid-court forehand on the next point that he could have drilled, Federer chose to hit another drop shot to the same spot; the result was another Thiem flick winner. A minute later, Thiem had the match-deciding service break, and the biggest win of his career. Federer gave Thiem his opportunity, and Thiem took it. He won’t, as Darren Cahill would say, die wondering about this one.

During the match, I wondered if having Nicolas Massu, one of the game’s great overachievers and never-say-die competitors, in his player box had inspired Thiem, and he credited Massu’s “energy” afterward. In the third set, Thiem fell and cut his elbow, which started to bleed. But he didn’t appear to notice until after the match was over—that’s how far into this one he was. Thiem played as if his future depended on it. With spring and clay around the corner, his future just got a lot brighter.