!Picby Pete Bodo
We're closing in on the start of the ATP World Tour Finals, so let's take a look at the "elite eight" contenders, rate what they have going for—and against—them on the eve, and hazard a guess as to how the group standings will ultimately shake-out. We'll start with Group A, with each man's season record and number of tournaments won included.
Novak Djokovic (69-4; 10 titles)
Going For: Can you say "confidence?" Djokovic has lost just four matches this year, two of them engagements he couldn't complete because of injuries—shoulder (vs. Andy Murray in Cincinnati) and back (Juan Martin del Potro, in the Davis Cup semifinals). Djokovic's record this year speaks for itself, and he likes the indoor-hard surface in London's O2 Arena. Also, I'll bet some readers will be surprised to know (or remember) that Djokovic won this event in 2008, and the only other player who comes in as a former champion is Roger Federer (who is tied for the most titles ever in the year-end playoffs, with five).
Going Against: Can you say "fatigue?" In fact, you can insert the second sentence from the above paragraph here as well. Oddly, though, other players who have posted the top 10 winning percentages in the Open era won significantly more matches. Seven of the top 10 winning percentages of the Open era incorporated at least 80 match wins, including Ivan Lendl's whopping 106 victories in 1982. So fatigue may not be as much of a menace as it may seem—until you include the toll (mental, emotional, and physical) of the injuries Djokovic has been carrying around. If he's looking for an excuse to have a mediocre tournament, he's got it.
Andy Murray (56-12, 5 titles)
Going For: Murray has been on fire since the middle of the summer. Since way back in Cincinnati, he's compiled a record of 28-2. Given the way Murray imploded after losing the Australian Open final to Djokovic back in Februrary, you had to wonder if he would manage to stay in the Top 5, never mind replace Roger Federer as the No. 3 ranked player, which Murray did a few weeks ago. Murray's game is also well-suited to this surface.
Going Against: Let's face it; while Murray acquitted himself well at the final three majors of the year (he lost in the semis at each of them to Nadal), he's had trouble sustaining and stepping up his game when it's most necessary at big events. He also seems to have an almost coquettish relationship with a British public that's dying to see a British subject win something/anything big.
David Ferrer (56-17, 2 titles)
Going For: Ferrer is steady, with a versatile if workman-like style. There are no holes in his game, so it's difficult to come up with a game plan beyond recognizing that you really need to keep the ball in play and not allow Ferrer to start pushing you around in baseline rallies. In that sense, Ferrer is a great litmus test for determining whether your game is at an appropriately high level. In 2007, Ferrer did something at the World Tour Finals (then called the Tennis Masters Cup) that he's been unable to match at Grand Slams; he beat a succession of superior players (in order, Djokovic, Nadal, Richard Gasquet and Andy Roddick) to make the final—which he lost to Federer. He'd love to recapture that magic.
Going Against: Ferrer qualified for the season-ending championships last year as well, but in the round-robin portion he failed to win even a set against Federer, Robin Soderling, or Murray. He went three and out. That has to be fresh in his mind. Any player who has power and a slightly higher aggression-quotient (which isn't hard to do, given Ferrer's defensive mindset) can shut him down.
Tomas Berdych (51-21, 1 title)
Going For: This Czech native has played well since he had to retire in the third round of the U.S. Open against Janko Tipsarevic. He won Beijing (d. Marin Cilic) and upset Murray in Paris before he lost to Federer in the semifinals. He likes indoor hard courts, and can really power through opponents when he's on his game and mentally focused. At No. 7, Berdych is just one ranking place below his career best, and although he's failed thus far to make the breakthrough so many have predicted for him over the years, it's not too late.
Going Against: When it comes to big tournaments, Berdych just isn't a closer. And at 26, he's been around long enough for that to have become a real issue. Somehow, he'll come up short and you can't put that entirely down to the fact that the other guys are just. . . better. If you look at the match wins and tournament titles Berdych (and Ferrer, for that matter) have accumulated and compare their numbers to those of, say, Murray, you can see why Murray can be called a closer while they cannot.
Group Outlook: A whole lot more than usual is going to depend on Djokovic's state of health. It's hard to envision Djokovic failing to get out of the round-robin stage, though. Murray is the obvious choice to join him in the semis, but Berdych could play the spoiler—especially after his win in Paris over Murray.
Group B:
Rafael Nadal (66-13, 3 titles)
Going For: When you look at his stats, it's clear that No. 2 Nadal has had an excellent year (it included yet another triumph at the French Open). But that 0-6 record against Djokovic (including losses in the finals of Wimbledon and the U.S. Open) appears to have distressed the Spaniard and wiped out much of the joy he might otherwise take from a solid year. Nadal did not have a great Asian swing, and he decided to get away from it all for a month before the upcoming London final. He'll be well-rested and, presumably, fresh of mind.
Going Against: Nadal is taking a big chance going into the World Tour Finals without having had any competitive matches in a month. Also, Nadal seemed genuinely hurt and stunned, while remaining realistic, by the way Djokovic manhandled him this year. He's needed to get his emotional equilibrium back, but this isn't exactly the ideal venue for achieving that. Indoor hard is the most problematic of surfaces for Rafa, and his failure to have won even one year-end championship is telling.
Roger Federer (59-12, 3 titles)
Going For: Federer has won his last 12 matches (he won the Basel and the Paris Masters titles). In retrospect, his decision to skip the Asian tour and focus his late-season efforts on maximizing his preparation for the World Tour Finals seems clever. It also suggests that Federer values this event more highly than do some of his peers. The world No. 4 also benefits from his terrific history at this event, and in the O2 venue, where he's the defending champ. The surface likes his game. Those are just a few of the elements that point toward a strong finish by Federer—after a very up-and-down year.
Going Against: Roger is 30; no tennis player would choose to be 30. At his age, inexplicable losses and failures of focus lasting games and even sets start to become an issue. He also has two men in his group (the next two) who are capable of overpowering anyone they face.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (52-22, 2 titles)
Going For: Tsonga undeniably has a big game, but the real plus may be that he's been injury-free. He hasn't retired mid-match since he gave it up in the semis of Montreal (l. to Djokovic), and in many places that's cause for celebration. Tsonga collected both of his titles (Metz and Vienna) after the U.S. Open, and he ended his fall campaign on a high note, making the final in the Paris Masters (l. to Federer). His big serve, facility with the volley, and generally aggressive mentality are well-served by the ideal ambient conditions at indoor events. He could come up big in London.
Going Against: Like Murray, Tsonga hasn't always been able to lift his game to the required, and reachable, heights at the big events. Players who have been able to stay even with him often have been able to wear him down.
Mardy Fish (43-22, 1 title)
Going For: In a conference call the other day, Fish jokingly said that the only hole he saw in the draw was. . . the one made by his name. So why is this a positive? Because Fish is under no pressure, and he can go out there to swing from the heels and have a good time. If he's on his game, that could spell trouble for anyone. His big serve and willingness to attack and volley will be useful assets on the indoor hard court.
Going Against: Fish has a long history of underachieving, despite the much-heralded makeover he underwent in 2009 and '10. All those years of losing matches he could have won, or not paying adequate attention to his fitness, may be too much for Fish to overcome, given that he feels—appropriately—that making the elite eight is already a significant reward for having found religion.
Group Outlook: Federer will ride herd over this group, so for me the big question centers on Nadal. Just how determined is he, and how well prepared and hungry will he be? If he's unable or unwilling to catch fire, you have to like Tsonga to take his place as the other semifinalist. Hail, even if he catches fire, Tsonga could come through to join Federer in the semis.