WTA Finals Cancun Final Preview: Iga Swiatek vs. Jessica Pegula

The WTA season ends the way it began.

In the kickoff event of 2023, the United Cup, world No. 3 Pegula beat world No. 1 Swiatek on a quick court Down Under, 6-2, 6-2. At the time, it felt like it might be a harbinger of bigger victories to come for the American, and perhaps, just perhaps, a sign that Swiatek would struggle to live up to her stellar 2022.

That’s not exactly how it turned out. Pegula had a very good season, and beat Swiatek again on her way to a Masters 1000 title in Montreal, but the most important victories eluded her. Swiatek, meanwhile, wasn’t quite as dominant as she was the year before, but she defended her title at Roland Garros and won a tour-best five tournaments. With her lopsided victory over current No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka on Sunday, Swiatek has 67 wins on the season, one more than she did in 2022.

Now, 11 months after they played in Australia, each woman has a chance to end the year with a signature victory.

If she wins, Swiatek will finish the year No. 1 for the second straight time. While she has downplayed her desire to do that in recent weeks, you wouldn’t have known it from the way she pounded her chest and let out a roar after beating Sabalenka. After searching for her A-game for much of the second half of the season, Swiatek has gradually rediscovered it in Beijing and Cancun. She looked like her 2022 self against Sabalenka.

“I’m happy I could show you my game tonight,” she told the crowd in Cancun.

As for Pegula, a win on Monday would secure her biggest career title. Like Swiatek, she has built her game back up with a title in Seoul and a 4-0 start in Cancun. This week she has defeated No. 1 Sabalenka, No. 3 Coco Gauff, and No. 4 Elena Rybakina. Despite the disrupting winds and frustrating rain, Pegula has been timing the ball as well as she has all season.

Both women seem to be at their best. Who does that favor? Swiatek is 5-3 against Pegula, while Pegula has won two of three this season. Swiatek’s one victory in 2023 is instructive, though. It’s the only match between them that came in a final, in Doha, and Iga won it 6-3, 6-0. Swiatek is 16-4 in finals for her career, and she has won her last three. Pegula is 4-5 in finals, but she has won two Masters 1000s in the last two seasons.

The match will mostly reside on Swiatek’s racquet. She’s the harder hitter and better mover, and she has maintained a balance of aggression and safety this week, playing closer to the baseline, taking the ball early, and not trying to uncork low-percentage winners. Pegula has also shown an ability this week to press forward intelligently.

But if and when push comes to shove, Swiatek can reach a level Pegula typically can’t. Winner: Swiatek