WTA Finals Friday Previews: Iga Swiatek vs. Ons Jabeur; Coco Gauff vs. Marketa Vondrousova

As we enter the final day of round-robin play at the WTA Finals, all four players in the Chetumal Group still have to a chance to advance to the semifinals. There’s no reason for either of Friday’s matches not to be competitive.

Iga Swiatek vs. Ons Jabeur

While everyone in this group still has a shot at the semis, some have a better shot than others. Swiatek has the best of all: She’s 2-0, has won both of her matches in straight sets, and has handed out two bagels to her opponents along the way. The only scenario in which she doesn’t advance is if she loses this match in straight sets and Gauff loses to Vondrousova in straight sets. Jabeur, who is 1-1 and 2-2 in sets so far in Cancun, needs to beat Swiatek to have a chance at advancing.

Does Jabeur have that chance? Swiatek leads their head-to-head 4-2 (3-2 in completed matches). Swiatek beat Jabeur in straight sets on hard courts at the US Open last year, while Jabeur won in three on grass at Wimbledon the year before. Swiatek is on something of a late-year roll right now, having won eight straight matches and a title in Beijing. She can still reclaim her No. 1 ranking in Cancun.

Jabeur started extremely slowly this week, winning just one game against Gauff on Monday. But she looked something like her old self in beating Vondrousova in blustery conditions on Wednesday. Jabeur may have a losing record against Swiatek, but she has a winning record—5-3—against Top 10 opponents this season.

As usual with Jabeur, the question will be how uncomfortable she can make Swiatek from the baseline, and how much can she disrupt her ground-stroke rhythm with her mix of spins. The other variable may be Jabeur’s emotional state. After her last win, she was in tears speaking of the plight of the Palestinians in Gaza. For this match, she says she’ll try to “let go of some of the anger” she’s feeling and play as freely as she can. I wish Ons the best, but think Swiatek will be tough to stop right now. Winner: Swiatek

Coco Gauff vs. Marketa Vondrousova

It may sound hard to believe, but there was some beef between these two when they first met in Dubai in 2021. During that match, Vondrousova was catching the wayward service tosses with her racquet. Gauff pointed out to the umpire that the Czech was making contact and thus, technically, hitting the ball and committing a fault. When the chair agreed, Vondrousova let her lack of appreciation for Gauff’s opinion be known.

Gauff won that match in three sets, and she won again, 6-3, 6-0, when they met again earlier this month. Is there some lingering bitterness from Vondrousova from 2021? If so, she’ll either have to ignore it or channel it right away. With an 0-2 record in Cancun, she needs to win in straights, and get some help from Swiatek in the other match, to have a chance at the semifinals.

The truth is, neither of these two is coming in on a high. Vondrousova has surrendered all four sets she’s played this week, and Gauff completely lost her serve at the end of her match against Swiatek. Serving for the second set at 5-4, looking like she was ready to take it to a third, she suddenly double faulted four straight times. We’ll see if she can get some of her confidence back, and a few serves into the court, before this match, and possibly her season, come to an end. Winner: Gauff