WTA Finals Preview: Coco Gauff puts her new game up against the elite in Cancun; Swiatek and Sabalenka’s duel for No. 1

“Ready or not.” In the case of the WTA Finals in Cancun, we might want to take the phrase literally. The location for the sport’s signature all-women’s event was chosen less than two months ago, and as of Friday the stadium itself was still under construction.

That said, chaos typically reigns on the grounds at Flushing Meadows the week before the US Open begins, too. The only thing that counts is what happens, and how the place looks, when the first ball is played. So we’ll just have to hope that everything is ready for the opening singles matches on Sunday afternoon. The event is being run by the same company, GS Sports Management, that put on a successful WTA Finals week in Guadalajara in 2021. Hopefully that’s a reason for optimism.

Until then, we can ponder the draw. The eight players have been split into two groups of four, named after two other waterfront cities in Mexico, Bacalar and Cheturnal. Here’s a look at how those groups may shake out, and who might be semifinal bound. Having the eight best player in the world square off for a week should be good viewing—whatever stadium it happens in.

Bacalar Group

Aryna Sabalenka

• Ranking: No. 1
• Record vs. rest of group: 14-8

Sabalenka accomplished what she wanted to accomplish in 2023: She won her first major, and reached No. 1 for the first time. She also made the semis or better at all four Slams. Just as important for this week, she has a winning record against everyone else in her group. All of this makes her a slight favorite to win the whole thing, but a couple of questions do arise: (1) Can she close? This year, Sabalenka lost two Slam semis and a final after having clear leads, and she hasn’t won a title since Madrid in May. Last year, at the Finals in Fort Worth, she lost in the title match. (2) How much will her meltdown in the US Open final stay with her? In her only tournament since, in Beijing, she lost to Rybakina in the quarters.

Elena Rybakina

• Ranking: No. 4
• Record vs. rest of group: 4-7

Like Sabalenka, Rybakina had an excellent first half of the season. She made a Slam final, won Indian Wells and Rome, reached the final in Miami and beat Iga Swiatek twice. But also like Sabalenka, Rybakina hasn’t won a title since, and she went out in the third round at the US Open. Did we see the limits of her power-first game, or was she just burned out after a busy spring? Rybakina’s serve would seem to make her a player who can beat anyone on any given day, but her 4-7 record against this group doesn’t bear that out.

Jessica Pegula

• Ranking: No. 5
• Record vs. rest of group: 7-10

It can’t get any worse for Pegula at this tournament, right? Last year she staggered out of Fort Worth 0-3 in singles, and 0-3 in doubles with Coco Gauff. This steadiest of competitors had hit the wall. This time the American should arrive in a better frame of mind. She won her last tournament, in Seoul, and had two weeks off before Cancun. But this all-star event is still a challenge for Pegula, who excels at beating the players she should beat, but can struggle in the late rounds against the top opponents. She’s 7-10 against her Bacalar group-mates, but this power-absorber should be ready if one of them has an off day.

Maria Sakkari

• Ranking: No. 9
• Record vs. rest of group: 9-11

Sakkari was an alternate who made it in when Karolina Muchova pulled out with a wrist injury. So she must be thrilled just to be here, especially after her 2023, much of which was subpar. She lost in the first round at three of the majors, and won her only title in Guadalajara in September. But as her nine wins over her group-mates show, Sakkari may take a lot of bad losses, but she can hang with the best. Last year in Fort Worth, she beat Sabalenka and Pegula and went 3-0 in round-robin play. If she’s feeling no pressure, she’ll be dangerous.

Semifinalists: Sabalenka, Sakkari

Chetumal Group

Iga Swiatek

• Ranking: No. 2
• Record vs. rest of group: 14-3

If you want to win a race to No. 1, should you tell everyone you don’t care where you finish? That strategy worked for Swiatek earlier this month in Beijing, where she won her fifth title of 2023 after claiming she wasn’t interested in the No. 1 spot. Despite those tour-best five titles, Iga’s season felt a little up and down—a little humanizing—after her historic 2022. Now the question may be: Is Swiatek really as human as she has looked this year, or is she still the class of the tour and a future double-digit Slam winner? She has clearly been a cut above this group, as her 14-3 record attests. In Beijing, Swiatek won not by hitting out more, but by playing with less risk. That seems like a repeatable formula.

Coco Gauff

• Ranking: No. 3
• Record vs. rest of group: 6-10

Gauff may be the most intriguing figure here. Like Pegula, she made a disastrous WTA Finals debut in Fort Worth, losing all six singles sets she played. But that was before her great leap forward with Brad Gilbert this summer, when she stormed through the summer, beat Swiatek and Sabalenka, and won the US Open. She’s turned her serve into a strength, and she’s attacking almost as well as she’s defending now. But going up against the best night after night will be a different type of test of her newly renovated game. She’s 1-8 against Swiatek, but 5-2 against Jabeur and Vondrousova. Still, Gauff probably won’t be able to rely on them collapsing the way Sabalenka did against her in the US Open final.

Ons Jabeur

• Ranking: No. 7
• Record against rest of group: 7-11

Like Sakkari, Jabeur is probably just happy to be in Cancun, after the injury-plagued season’s she had, and her painful loss in the Wimbledon final. But she has soldiered on, winning a title in Asia this fall and squeaking in at No. 7. When her racquet turns into a wand, she can beat anyone, but you never know exactly when the magic is going to happen, or not happen, for her. Last year in Fort Worth, she nearly qualified for the semis, and she has at least two wins over each of her group-mates, including Swiatek. If Ons is swinging freely and feeling little pressure, she’s a semifinal dark horse.

Marketa Vondrousova

• Ranking: No. 6
• Record vs. rest of group: 3-6

At the start of the year, Vondrousova was the least likely of these eight players to end up qualifying. Her Wimbledon title launched her, of course, but Vondrousova wasn’t a two-week wonder. She was 40-14 on the year, and a consistent quarterfinal and round of 16 finisher, including on hard courts. But this isn’t an ideal group for the Czech: She’s 0-4 for her career against Swiatek and Gauff, and she’ll probably need to break through against one of them to make the semis.

Semifinalists: Swiatek, Gauff

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Semifinals: Swiatek d. Sakkari; Sabalenka d. Gauff

Final: Swiatek d. Sabalenka