WTA Finals Previews: Jessica Pegula vs. Maria Sakkari; Ons Jabeur vs. Aryna Sabalenka

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Jessica Pegula vs. Maria Sakkari

This feels like an especially important match for Pegula. Last year she was an alternate at the WTA Finals, but never made it on court. This time she’ll be make her playing debut in the season-ending championships at the fairly advanced tennis age of 28. It’s an achievement that captures her rise up the rankings, which started slowly before turning meteoric in recent years: At the end of 2020, the American was No. 62; now she’s a career-high No. 3. While other, seemingly more talented players, like Ash Barty and Naomi Osaka, have dropped by the wayside, Pegula has plugged on and taken their place at the top of the totem pole.

How will she do in that rare air? So far, so good. Two weeks ago, Pegula won her first WTA 1000 level event, in Guadalajara. Now she’ll try her luck at an even higher level. As we can see from her opening match, nothing will come easily in Fort Worth. Pegula is 2-3 against Sakkari, though she won two of their three meetings in 2022, and their most recent, in the Guadalajara final, 6-2, 6-3.

That result isn’t entirely fair to Sakkari. She finished her semifinal earlier the same day, and survived two other three-set matches to clinch her spot in Fort Worth. It was a tough and often disappointing year for Sakkari; salvaging a place in the Top 8 obviously meant a lot to her. Maybe now that’s she’s in, she’ll loosen up and salvage even more this week.

To a large extent, this match will rest on Sakkari’s racquet. She’s the bigger hitter and the better mover, but she’s also the player who takes more risks and will have more highs and lows over the course of the match. Two weeks ago, Pegula was able to take some of the initiative away from Sakkari by hitting the ball down the middle and following it forward. But as well as Pegula played, her plan still relied on Sakkari making unforced errors. Whether Sakkari gives them to her again or not will likely determine the result of this match as well. Winner: Pegula

Ons Jabeur vs. Aryna Sabalenka

With a No. 2 ranking, and runner-up finishes at Wimbledon and the US Open this year, you might think Jabeur would be an old hand at the WTA Finals; it feels like she has been established in the tour’s elite for a while now. But like Pegula, the Tunisian will make her debut in the year-ender at 28. Despite her result in New York, though, she won’t come in with as much momentum as Pegula. Jabeur is just 2-1 since the Open, and her most recent match was a three-set loss to 60th-ranked Claire Liu.

Sabalenka, by contrast, has been here before. She was the No. 1 seed at this tournament last year, but didn’t make it out of the round-robin phase. This time she’s seeded seventh; like Sakkari, Sabalenka took a step back overall in 2022. While she nearly made the US Open final, she’s 1-2 since, and she lost her opener in Guadalajara.

Sabalenka and Jabeur have avoided each other in 2022 up until now. Their most recent meetings came in 2021, and Sabalenka won both times; the previous year, at Roland Garros, Jabeur came away a three-set victory. Both of these women have a definite strength that they can overuse: With Sabalenka, it’s the power ground stroke; with Jabeur, it’s the finesse shot.

Both of these women can also become borderline unstoppable once they’re comfortable at a tournament. Which makes this a tough pick, because this is a new venue, and neither of them has had much confidence-building match play of late. I’ll say Jabeur will find her groove first. Winner: Jabeur