The aura of Iga: On Swiatek’s 2022-style run to the WTA Finals title, and the year-end No. 1 ranking

When it comes to determining the final four at the WTA Finals, it's as straightforward as it gets in one group, and perhaps chaotic as possible in the other.

In the Bacalar Group, Jessica Pegula (2-0) clinched a semifinal spot on Tuesday. Maria Sakkari (0-2) was eliminated on Tuesday. That leaves Aryna Sabalenka (1-1) and Elena Rybakina (1-1), whom will face each other on Thursday for a ticket to Saturday’s semis.

It’s not as simple in the Chetumal Group. With her win over Coco Gauff (1-1) on Wednesday, Iga Swiatek is 2-0, hasn’t dropped a set, and she won two of those sets 6-0—yet she still hasn’t secured passage into the semifinals. That’s because Ons Jabeur (1-1) defeated Marketa Vondrousova (0-2) in straight sets afterward.

All four players, in fact, can still reach the semifinal stage, some with much easier paths than others:

Swiatek (2-0): 4-0 in sets, 26-11 in games

Gauff (1-1): 2-2 in sets, 17-14 in games

Jabeur (1-1): 2-2 in sets, 13-19 in games

Vondrousova (0-2): 0-4 in sets, 13-25 in games

Ons Jabeur kept her weekend hopes alive on Wednesday,

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What it means:

If Swiatek wins a set against Jabeur, she’ll earn a spot in the semis.
If Jabeur defeats Swiatek in straight sets, and Gauff defeats Vondrousova in straight sets, there will be a three-way tie at the top of the group, at 2-1 in matches and 4-2 in sets. The three-way tiebreaker is percentage of games won.
If Vondrousova defeats Gauff in straight sets, and Swiatek defeats Jabeur in straight sets, there will be a three-way tie at the bottom of the group, at 1-2 in matches and 2-4 in sets.

Other notes:

Through four days of play in Cancun, only one match has gone three sets—Rybakina’s 6-0, 6-7 (4), 7-6 (2) win over Sakkari.
Every day of play has featured at least one 6-0 set.
Seven of the 17 sets have finished 6-0 or 6-1.
Both of Wednesday’s results—Swiatek’s 6-0, 7-5 win over Gauff, and Jabeur’s 6-4, 6-3 win over Vondrousova—lasted one hour and 29 minutes.

Thursday’s order of play sees Pegula against Sakkari at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the winner-take-all match between Rybakina and Sabalenka.

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