Women's Preview: Jasmine Paolini, Barbora Krejcikova meet in surprising Wimbledon final

Jasmine Paolini vs. Barbora Krejcikova

During her press conference on Thursday, a reporter asked Paolini what she would have said if he had told her a year ago that she would reach the finals of Roland Garros and Wimbledon in 2024.

“You are crazy, I would say,” the Italian answered with a laugh.

Even as recently as two weeks ago, it was hard to imagine that either Paolini or Krejcikova would still be standing on the tournament’s final weekend. Before this year, Paolini had never won a WTA match on grass. And while Krejcikova went all the way in Paris three years ago, coming into this tournament she was 7-9 on the season and ranked 32nd.

But this is what life at Wimbledon is like in the Iga Swiatek era. The world No. 1’s inability to master grass has left the door open for Cinderellas of all sorts. In 2022, 17th-seeded Elena Rybakina won the title; last year unseeded Marketa Vondrousova wore the crown; now we have Paolini vs. Krejcikova in the most surprising final of all.

Will it be a good one? Their scanty head-to-head doesn’t give us much to work with. Both are 28-year-old veterans, but they’ve met just once, in the first round of qualifying at the Australian Open back in 2018. Krejcikova won easily, 6-2, 6-1. The match didn’t make much of an impression on either of them, though; both said they don’t remember anything about it in their press conferences on Thursday.

While Paolini doesn’t recall what it was like to play Krejcikova, her memories of what it’s like to be in a match of this magnitude are fresh in her mind.

“It’s going to be a Wimbledon final, so it’s a different kind of match, I think,” she said.

How will she react to the setting and the tension? Paolini says our guess is good as hers.

“I feel maybe Saturday I will be so nervous, I don’t know,” she said. “But I feel also relaxed. I’m the same person. I’m doing the same things….I don’t want to say more because maybe Saturday I’m going to be shaking.”

Whatever the state of her nerves are, that doesn’t mean she’ll change her approach to the points.

“It’s always the same things, the goal; to try to serve well…to try to return as many balls as possible, and to control the point.”

“On the grass is tough to defend,” the speedster conceded, so she’s going to try to do as little retrieving as she can.

Krejcikova says she hasn’t seen much of Paolini at this tournament, but can only assume she’s at her best right now.

“I expect a difficult match,” Krejcikova said. “I expect it’s going to be a big match for both of us. I expect a lot of fighting from both sides.”

Paolini lost her only Slam final, to Iga Swiatek; Krejcikova won hers, over a much less imposing opponent, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Judging by the way each handled those matches, and the way each handled their first Wimbledon semifinals, I wouldn’t expect either of them to be debilitated by nerves on Saturday. Though, as Paolini said, you never know until you get to Centre Court how you’re going to feel. There’s a special pressure to the Wimbledon final; last year, Ons Jabeur was suffocated by it, even though she played the same match the year before.

Paolini and Krejcikova won their semis by hanging in, absorbing a first-set loss, and keeping the faith through a close third. They’ll know that they’re capable of doing the same thing again in the final.

As for their games, they seem pretty evenly matched at the moment. Both are top doubles players, and they have the hands and all-court skills to prove it. Paolini is faster and steadier, while Krejcikova is the streakier, heavier-hitting shot-maker.

"I’m the same person. I’m doing the same things….I don’t want to say more because maybe Saturday I’m going to be shaking." —Jasmine Paolini

The serve, as always, will be crucial. As will Paolini’s aggression levels; getting herself moving forward, rather than side to side, will be a key for her.

“I expect, I mean, a very, very, very nice match,” Krejcikova says.

She and Paolini have the potential to prove her right, even if it isn’t the result she’s hoping for.

Winner: Paolini