!90980853 Mornin'. Let me apologize first off for not providing more red meat this week; it's been a bear, with a few magazine obligations and preparation for the move to our new apartment, which will take place tomorrow. If I get my Devin Britton story done later this afternoon, I may pop back in.
Yesterday at the water cooler here at Tennis, we had a lively debate about whether or not Roger Federer will play Davis Cup for Switerland in the first round of the 2010 World Group competition, not long after the end of the next Australian Open. This is a tricky one, and how the Australian Open works out may have a lot to do with Federer's decision.
In a way, it's better to for the Swiss to have to deal with Spain at the very beginning or very end - a quarterfinal or semifinal meeting in Spain might make Federer question the wisdom of dedicated two, three weeks of time and effort to a very risky proposition. And as much as sports is all about the competition, I think the prospect of a final against Spain might be a little discouraging for a guy to whom nothing less than a final-round victory can be taken as a net gain, career-wise. Not that Federer doesn't enjoy playing for his nation - he does. Not that Federer is an "it's all about me" kind of guy, except to the extent - which, realistically speaking, is pretty high - that he's a champion in an individual sport and is thus obliged to watch his own back.
And let's be clear about something else: I don't think Federer's decision will be shaped by his state-of-mind vis a vis Rafael Nadal. I think it will be driven by a calculation of the Swiss team's chance to advance, an issue on which the events of the next few months might bear heavily. Stan Wawrkina needs to show that he can keep up level of play that earned him top 10 status, and it's no sure bet he can do it. If he doesn't, the prospect of Federer entering the bullring diminishes.
Initially, I thought, No way Federer plays this year. But the more I thought about it, the more I realized that apart from spectre of anti-climax (wouldn't a Federer vs. Nadal battle on the ultimate day of Davis Cup competition, with the title on the line, be a sensational event?), this is the best possible draw for Federer. If he decides to play and the Swiss lose, it gets Davis Cup duty out of the way for the entire year, and he gets points for taking it on. If the Swiss manage to beat Spain on Iberian ground, the prospect of carting off that giant gleaming birthday cake of a trophy grows significantly brighter - probably enough for Federer to make a full commitment for the rest of the year.
I don't think we'll know what he decides any time soon, and much can change before he does. But I also think he knows the legacy-value of clashing with Nadal on a Davis Cup battlefield.
Okay, got to run to 10:15 meeting. Feel free to greet each other, and clear your pipes for another day of enlightening conversation leavened with aimless but always fun chit-chat.
-- Pete