Before each day of play at the Australian Open, we'll preview and predict three must-see matches. For full coverage of the season's first Slam, go to our men’s and women’s tournament pages.
For perhaps the first time, Monfils is seeded higher at a major than Nadal—the Frenchman is No. 6, the Spaniard No. 9. On the one hand, you can throw out these numbers in favor of a much more important set of digits: Nadal’s 12-2 record against Monfils, which includes four straight wins dating back to 2012. Among those was a 6-1, 6-2, 6-3 blowout at the Australian Open three years ago. But Monfils’ No. 6 seeding does matter. He has been a more substantive and dangerous competitor over the last year than he ever has been before. In the 2016 final against Nadal in Monte Carlo, Monfils won the first and only set he’s ever taken from Rafa on clay. Monfils has also been sharp in his first three matches Down Under. He should make it interesting against Nadal, and might push it to five. But after his last win, over Alexander Zverev, Rafa should feel a little more confident in the clutch.
Winner: Nadal