Round 4 Previews: Red-hot Garbine Muguruza—or resurgent Petra Kvitova?

NEW YORK—As pre-tournament favorites go, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal haven’t exactly impressed in their first two matches at the US Open, while Alexander Zverev crashed out in the second round. Meanwhile, Garbine Muguruza, the consensus favorite on the women’s side, has somehow managed to exceed prognosticators’ lofty expectations.

The world No. 3 has lost just nine games over three rounds, winning two bagel sets in the process. But her 6-1, 6-1 third-round victory over Magdelena Rybarikova was most impressive of all. The breadstick bombardment was the exact same margin by which Muguruza defeated Rybarikova—a crafty player who, on the right day, can disarm anyone—in the Wimbledon semifinals.

“Playing somebody in the third round that you play in semifinals, you know, it’s a little bit tough match, and I just learn of what I did there,” a gracious Muguruza said afterward. “Go forward, try to hit some big shots and big serves.”

Big shots and big serves have resulted in big trophies for Muguruza this summer. She’s 19-2 since the beginning of Wimbledon, where she won her second career Grand Slam titles. Her only losses since then have been to Madison Keys and Elina Svitolina, and she won the prestigious Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati with lopsided victories over world No. 1 Karolina Pliskova—6-3, 6-2—and world No. 2 Simona Halep—6-1, 6-0.

“I feel I improve a lot as a tennis player,” Mugurza said after her latest dismissal of Rybarikova. “You know, the summer has been great, and I’m playing a lot of matches. So the fact that I played so much matches gives me, you know, gives me pretty good confidence.”

Can anyone stop this express train in Queens? There are potential pitfalls in Muguruza’s half of the draw, primarily the ageless Venus Williams and resurgent Maria Sharapova. But Muguruza’s most difficult test could come as soon as Sunday, in the fourth round. That’s when she’ll face Petra Kvitova, who has had an equally impressive first week in Flushing Meadows.

Kvitova’s emotional return at Roland Garros from a knife attack was justifiably one of the stories of the season. But play since then has also been noteworthy—and, frankly, underreported.

After taking a second-round loss in Paris, Kvitova strolled onto grass, the surface on which she’s won her two Grand Slam titles. She promptly won the Birmingham tune-up tournament, reminding fans of what we’d missed over the first half of 2017, and showing she can recapture her command quickly.

Wimbledon didn’t bear its typically bountiful fruit (strawberries, no doubt) for Kvitova, who lost in the second round. And her subsequent play at hard-court events in Stanford, Toronto, Cincinnati and New Haven was middling, at best. But that’s all been forgotten this week, under the brightest lights, as Kvitova has resembled the force we’ve come to know and appreciate.

Beginning with a potentially difficult first-rounder against Jelena Jankovic, Kvitova has won each of her matches in straight sets. She topped the veteran Serb, 7-5, 7-5; she then ousted Alize Cornet, always a difficult out at Slams, 6-1, 6-2; most recently, she cruised past Caroline Garcia, who is having a career year, 6-0, 6-4.

“I think I played better than in Birmingham today, and the round before,” Kvitova said after defeating Garcia. “I'm really pleased with the game I showed today.”

While Kvitova’s summer lacked match wins, she was still playing matches—not an insignificant fact. It makes her sudden upturn at the US Open all the more intriguing: Kvitova’s three-match run should be viewed less as a hot streak and more as her settling into her usual, dangerous form.

It’s the kind of form capable of throwing a wrench in the—currently—perfectly calibrated, match-winning tennis machine that is Muguruza.

“I would be happy if I see Top-10 player finally,” Kvitova said with a smile after being asked about the possibility of meeting Muguruza, before the Spaniard advanced to the fourth round. “That's means I'm kind of deep in the tournament, finally.”

In this power-versus-power heavyweight fight, Kvitova holds a slight, 2-1 edge. They’ve split two meetings on hard courts: Muguruza won their first contest in a classic at the 2015 WTA Finals, 6-4, 4-6, 7-5, while Kvitova won their most recent meeting, last year in Beijing, 6-1, 6-4. (On clay, in Stuttgart, Kvitova won by the odd score of 6-1, 3-6, 6-0.)

“She has a great game,” said Kvitova. “She has a good confidence right now, as well. I think she's really going for the shots and playing her best, for sure.

“It's nice to play someone who won a Grand Slam this year. I'm really looking forward for the big stage and for that match.”

It’s hard to ever consider Kvitova’s lethal lefty serve as an equalizer—in almost every match she plays, it’s the most dominant shot on court, the specter that casts a pall on her opponents. But at the moment, Muguruza’s ground game may be the most impressive of any player, on either tour, throughout this summer and at the Open. It is decisive, domineering and effective. If Muguruza gets any clean look at the ball, she can claim the point in an instant, or turn the tide irrevocably.

But for anyone who thinks another deep Muguruza is predestined, the field powerless to stop her, the Wimbledon champion thinks otherwise. It takes one to know one, after all.

“Tough match, actually,” said Muguruza.

And a tough call, too.

Winner: Muguruza, in three sets

Carla Suarez Navarro vs. Venus Williams [9]

The 37-year-old has won three of her last four meetings with Suarez Navarro, and four of seven overall. At the Open, Williams has been the steadier of the two—CSN has survived a pair of three-setters—though the American’s matches haven’t been routine. That, plus the combination of Suarez Navarro’s versatility and Williams’ firepower, should result in a competitive fourth-rounder. The winner gets Kvitova or Muguruza.

Winner: Williams, in three sets

Sam Querrey [17] vs. Mischa Zverev [23]

The serve-and-volleying Zverev got in John Isner’s face Friday night by coming to net every chance he got—and in doing so, got in his head. Such determination and execution resulted in the American’s second loss to Zverev in a Slam this season; the German rallied from two sets down to beat Isner at the Australian Open. For Querrey’s sake, let’s hope he watched and took notes. Isner’s buddy will need to outsmart Zverev, who will be susceptible to passing shots with his net forays, rather than outhit him. For Querrey, who’s more about pace than placement, it will be a tall ask over best-of-five sets.

Winner: Zverev, in four sets

Denis Shapovalov vs. Pablo Carreno Busta [12]

The denizens of the bottom half couldn’t have dreamed of such opportunity. Incredibly, this matchup will be held in Arthur Ashe Stadium—it’s Day 7, remember—where, even more incredibly, Shapovalov is 2-0. He’s 6-0 so far in Flushing Meadows, having progressed through qualifying. At some point, the 18-year-old’s magic has to run out, right? For the benefit of tennis’ burgeoning youth brigade, I hope not. But Carreno Busta, an unsung hard-hitter, seems like the kind of veteran challenge that the rising Canadian star will have difficulty rising up to.

Winner: Carreno Busta, in four sets