TC Plus Match of the Day: Dominic Thiem vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Vienna

Dominic Thiem would love nothing more than to give his home crowd in Austria something to cheer about. In eight previous attempts at the Erste Bank Open, dating back to 2011, Thiem has never made it past the quarterfinal round. Earlier this year on his preferred surface of red clay, the two-time French Open finalist came through to win Kitzbuhel for his first title on home soil, an experience he'll look to draw from.

That said, only one of his 15 title runs has occurred on an indoor hard court—the 2018 St. Petersburg Open. It’s no secret his game is not conducive to indoor tennis. The same certainly can’t be said for his first-round opponent, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

If there is a roof over the court, Tsonga is a different beast. He ranks third all-time among active ATP players in indoor titles behind Roger Federer (25) and Andy Murray (15). Thirteen of his 18 triumphs are on indoor hard, including at Vienna in 2011.

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Tsonga owns a 2-0 head-to-head advantage over Thiem: he beat him at this tournament in 2013 and also in 2016 at Indian Wells. Despite this, oddsmakers still peg Thiem as a solid favorite over the Frenchman. Maybe they know something we don’t.

On the court, Tsonga will look to crush his inside-out forehand to Thiem’s backhand. The placement of Tsonga’s forehand won’t matter as much as the pace—he needs to take time away from the Austrian's backhand. To counteract Tsonga’s probable strategy, Thiem must do the exact same, deliver inside-out forehand blows to Tsonga’s infinitely weaker backhand, then end the point on any mid-court or floating replies.

Thiem will undoubtedly have the home crowd advantage in this matchup, but Tsonga is the stronger player indoors. Look for the flashy Frenchman to pull off the opening-round upset.