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WTA Finals Shenzhen Red Group Preview: Ashleigh Barty vs. Naomi Osaka

WTA Finals Shenzhen Red Group Preview: Ashleigh Barty vs. Naomi Osaka

Standings screenshot from shiseidowtafinalsshenzhen.com

The Red Group’s top seeds will face off for the second time this month, as world No. 1 Ashleigh Barty looks to avenge her recent Beijing final defeat to the seemingly unstoppable Naomi Osaka.

While the court may be purple this time around, the conditions are similar to this month's previous encounter, where Osaka overcame a sluggish start before blitzing to the finish line, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2. This will be the pair's fourth meeting this season; their highest-profile encounter came in the third round of the Australian Open, when a then-unseeded Osaka defeated a then-18th-seeded Barty, 6-4, 6-2. Barty's lone win over Osaka came on grass, in Nottingham.

“It’s a difficult court to get rhythm on at times,” Barty said after her opening-round victory over Belinda Bencic.

Her assessment of the conditions doesn’t bode well, as Osaka is one of the more difficult players to establish a rhythm against. When Osaka is playing her best, like she is right now, her combination of power, depth and shotmaking make her the toughest opponent in the tournament.

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WTA Finals Shenzhen Red Group Preview: Ashleigh Barty vs. Naomi Osaka

WTA Finals Shenzhen Red Group Preview: Ashleigh Barty vs. Naomi Osaka

It’s imperative that Barty establish an effective first-serve, first-ball combination throughout the match. Inch for inch, Barty has one of the best serves on tour, but at 5’5” will her kick-serve trouble the 5’11” Osaka? It certainly didn’t in Beijing, as Barty won just 47 percent of her second-serve points. Osaka strikes her return extremely far inside the baseline; if Barty misses her spot—especially on the second serve—she’s in trouble.

The Aussie will need to ramp up her aggression or risk being blown off the court, even as the No. 1. As effective as her slice backhand is, she won’t beat this version of Osaka with neutral balls or defense. Osaka hasn’t lost a match during the Asian swing, and until she does, she is the pick to win every match she plays. Winner: Osaka

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WTA Finals Shenzhen Red Group Preview: Ashleigh Barty vs. Naomi Osaka

WTA Finals Shenzhen Red Group Preview: Ashleigh Barty vs. Naomi Osaka