Rafa's win forces Djokovic to win ATP Finals for a chance at No. 1

After Rafael Nadal had made one of his most astonishing  career comebacks from the brink to defeat Daniil Medvedev, 6-7 (3), 6-3, 7-6, in their round-robin clash at the ATP Finals in London, the Spaniard was typically candid and self-effacing in his post-match interview. Realizing he had escaped from the most treacherous of corners, Nadal said, “Honestly, I have been super lucky. That is the real thing. Sorry for Daniil. It is a tough loss. He was playing much better than me in the third set, of course, and today is one of [those] days that one out of 1,000 you win, and it happened today.”

That assessment was spot on. Nadal is, in my view, the toughest competitor—day in, day out—in the history of the game. Across the board, in match after match, tournament upon tournament, year by year, his fighting spirit and propensity to salvage matches that seem well out of his reach has surpassed even his most celebrated rivals. Although Novak Djokovic has been a singularly resilient clutch competitor at the majors—thrice upending Roger Federer from double match point on big occasions, including the Wimbledon final this year—Nadal’s ceaseless mental toughness over the course of his career has been unrivaled.

In the match, Medvedev collapsed flagrantly down the stretch of this fascinating encounter. He was on the verge of achieving his first triumph over the Spaniard in three career appointments. He seemed certain to avenge his gallant loss to Nadal in their five-hour US Open final. But, in the end, Medvedev largely beat himself with self-inflicted wounds. Those wounds were exacerbated by his deteriorating attitude. Time and again in the latter stages of the contest, he was mocking himself with the thumbs-up sign after he made unprovoked mistakes. His self-pity and extreme negativity fed upon each other and ultimately devoured him.

But before we can put the conclusion of this showdown in perspective, it is important to review what happened in the entire match. The first set was well played on both sides of the net. Nadal was cagey from the outset, selectively serving-and-volleying, sending his first serve down the T with uncanny precision, closing in for the volley swiftly and confidently. He never lost his serve in that set.

Meanwhile, Medvedev had one break point on Nadal’s serve in the seventh game. Nadal double-faulted to fall behind 30-40. The break-point rally was a beauty, lasting 35 strokes, bringing out the best in both players. Medvedev came in on the Nadal forehand but the approach was too short. Nadal’s high trajectory topspin pass landed safely for a down the line winner. He held on tenaciously from there.

Both players went into the tie-break playing well. Medvedev secured a quick mini-break with a forehand down the line winner but lost the next point on his own serve to knot the score at 1-1 when Nadal’s forehand down the line was too good. Medvedev had won 19 points in a row on his serve before dropping that exchange. Nadal moved ahead 3-2 in this sequence but Medvedev captured five points in a row to take the set. The critical point was the one giving Medvedev a 5-3 lead. The Russian countered an inside out forehand from Nadal with a scorching and unanswerable forehand down the line. He fired seven aces and won 29 of 35 points on his delivery en-route to the first-set victory.

But Medvedev was broken at 15 in the opening game of the second set as Nadal found his range impressively off the ground. On top of that, Medvedev played a loose game, making three unforced errors. The world No. 1 held from 0-30 in the following game and he was off and running. He returned with increasing efficiency in that set, winning 7 of 12 points on the 23-year-old’s second serve, taking 16 of 22 points on his own delivery and refusing to concede a single point on his second serve. Nadal added an insurance break at the end of the second set, and seemed to have built considerable momentum heading into the third.

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But the 19-time Grand Slam champion was surprisingly broken right off the bat in the third set. At 30-30, he came forward but displayed poor execution on a forehand volley that sat up. Medvedev passed him clean off the forehand. On the following point, Nadal steered a backhand slice wide down the line. Medvedev double faulted to trail 30-40 in the second game but eventually held on for 2-0. Having restored his morale, Medvedev went after another break. With Nadal serving at 30-30 in the third game, Medvedev employed a drop shot off the backhand to set up a backhand volley winner. Now break point down at 30-40, Nadal attempted a backhand drop volley but Medvedev anticipated beautifully, sending a backhand passing shot winner crosscourt and into the clear.

Serving with new balls, the Russian released two aces in holding at 30 for 4-0. He had two break points in the following game but squandered them both with an errant forehand down the line when he had an opening for a winner, and a netted backhand pass with time to spare. Nadal gamely held on but Medvedev surged to 5-1 with a love hold. He then reached match point in the seventh game but slipped while chasing a fine winning drop shot from Nadal. The Spaniard held on for 2-5.

Serving for the match for the first time in the eighth game, Medvedev released an ace for 15-15 but lost the next three points, two with unforced errors and one with a badly executed drop volley that allowed Nadal to pass him easily off the forehand. Now serving at 3-5 with his spirit revived, Nadal held at 15, profiting from some very careless play on the part of his opponent. During this game, Medvedev’s defeatist behavior was strikingly evident.

Serving for the match a second time, Medvedev opened with a crosscourt forehand approach that lacked sting or depth. Nadal’s backhand pass was first rate, provoking an error on the volley. He followed with a backhand down the line that was too good and a terrific inside out forehand. Medvedev rallied from 0-40 to 30-40 but his serve-and-volley combination failed. His first volley was weak and Nadal pounced on the pass to draw an errant forehand volley.

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Astoundingly, after Medvedev had twice served for the match, it was 5-5. Nadal promptly held at 15 for 6-5. He had won 19 of the previous 24 points. Serving to stay in the match, Medvedev commenced the twelfth game with a pair of unforced errors. But then he came through with an ace at 131 MPH down the T, a 129 MPH service winner, an ace out wide in the deuce court and another ace out wide in the ad court. Four points. Three aces. All unstoppable serves. It was 6-6.

The tension in the tie-break was palpable. The first nine points went to the server. But Medvedev faltered first. Serving at 4-5, he had a relatively short ball off the forehand with an opening to win the point, but pulled that shot wide. That gave Nadal double match point with a 6-4 lead. Medvedev drove a two-hander down the line but missed it by an eyelash wide. Nadal had come from 3-4 down to secure the last four points, willing his way to victory.

In danger of not reaching the semifinals in London had he lost this match, Nadal now has a fighting chance to make that destination over the weekend if he can beat Stefanos Tsitsipas on Friday. And this improbable victory today may prove pivotal in his quest to finish as the year-end No. 1 ranked player for the fifth time in his illustrious career. He is to be commended for his poise under pressure and his courage when his back was against the wall.

The Spaniard has made more than his share of stunning recoveries across his career. A few which spring to mind are his 2006 final round win over Federer in Rome when he saved two match points and prevailed in a fifth set tie-break. Three years later, he erased three match points in the semifinals of Madrid against Djokovic, taking that gripping contest in another final set tie-break. There are countless other examples of his resilience and refusal to surrender.

But tennis matches are lost as well as won. Daniil Medvedev had competed with immense resolve when he came from two sets to love down and a break behind in the third set of the New York final to take the match down to the wire in a five-set blockbuster against Nadal. On that occasion, he did himself exceedingly proud before bowing nobly. Today in London, he let himself down in many ways by giving points away needlessly and wasting a monumental opportunity to beat the Spaniard for the first time.

Nadal generously lauded Medvedev afterwards for his flexibility as a player and expressed sympathy for his opponent. He said, “Very sorry for him, honestly, because to lose a match like this is tough and it’s painful. I feel very sorry for Daniil. He’s a good guy and he should be very proud of all the things that he’s doing.... Daniil is super tough mentally. He showed everybody all this year with what he achieved. If you are not able to be very solid mentally, it is impossible, honestly.”

For his part, Medvedev was suitably self-critical. He said, “I just need to close out such matches, to continue working mentally as I do every day to get better. Today was not the case. I mean, there were many things to tell that were not good about my mentality on the court and my attitude. So hopefully I am not going to have matches like this in my career, but we never know. I am going to try my best to not have them.”

Nadal has managed to avoid lamentable losses by always giving his all, no matter how far behind he might be, regardless of the circumstances or the opponent. At 33, he is ten years older and considerably wiser than Medvedev. In due course, Medvedev will have the chance to fully define who he is and what he might accomplish. He would do well to always follow the example of Nadal and never give up.