Australian Open Best Bets, Day 6: Back Monfils, Bencic and Verdasco

Australian Open Best Bets, Day 6: Back Monfils, Bencic and Verdasco

Judging by the ever-changing odds, the betting public does not have faith in Zverev to defeat Verdasco.

All figures from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Fernando Verdasco (+155) to defeat [7] Alexander Zverev 

The opening line for Verdasco was a gambler's dream. Initially at +230, the public has clubbed this line into submission, but +155 to bet against Zverev in his current state is still worthwhile. If Zverev fails to pinpoint the Verdasco backhand on his second serve, things could quickly fall apart. Zverev didn’t double fault in his last match, a routine victory over Egor Gerasimov, but he didn’t go for much either. Zverev won both his matches playing passive, don’t-miss tennis, which will not work against Verdasco’s glorious forehand. A Verdasco victory surely wouldn’t surprise anyone who’s been paying attention to Zverev’s recent form. 

[6] Belinda Bencic (-129) to defeat [28] Anett Kontaveit 

This line doesn’t make any sense, and as a bettor, that’s what you love to see. Bencic has looked rock-solid to start the tournament, and is currently +300 to win her quarter of the draw. Her opponent, Anett Kontaveit, is a +1400 long shot to win the quarter. If Bencic is such an overwhelming favorite compared to her opponent to make the semis, then why is she just barely favored to win at -129? We couldn’t tell you. The talented Swiss has more than enough game to breeze past the No. 28 seed and with these odds, deserves some serious cash considerations. Take Bencic all day at this number. 

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[10] Gael Monfils (-167) to defeat Ernests Gulbis

At some point, Ernests Gulbis’ surprise run in Melbourne will come to an end. The Latvian played his way through qualifying, then pulled off two upsets over Felix Auger-Aliassime and Aljaz Bedene. Gulbis has always been one of the streakiest players on tour, but Monfils should have no problem dispatching the current world No. 256. Monfils loves pace, and Gulbis—one of the most aggressive players on tour—will be happy to provide it. Monfils has lost just one set against the Latvian in their three previous meetings on the ATP and Challenger tours. At -167, and with a trending UTR over 100 spots higher, Monfils is a safe bet to end Gulbis’ admirable run in Melbourne.