Australian Open Best Bets, Day 8: Surging Muguruza; Rublev or Zverev?

All figures from DraftKings Sportsbook.

After a few tumultuous years, it seems Muguruza is finally returning to the upper echelon of the women’s game, a place she clearly belongs. The two-time major champion is serving bombs and swinging freely. She destroyed Elina Svitolina, 6-1, 6-2, in just over an hour on Saturday night, and showcased some incredible touch to compliment her firepower from the ground. Muguruza is back with coach Conchita Martinez, who guided her to the Wimbledon title in 2017. There seems to be a similar spark this year.

Muguruza should have the advantage over Bertens on the speedy, low-bouncing Melbourne hard courts. Bertens excels on all surfaces, but clay is by far her favorite. Muguruza hits very flat and low—the type of ball that should trouble Bertens enough to escape with a victory as a slight favorite.

Yes, you read that right. Tennis is a game of matchups, and Zverev has always had Rublev’s number. Zverev is 3-0 against his good friend who he’s known since age 10, with an absurd margin of victory. Rublev has never won more than six total games in a match against Zverev.

Rublev may be the hottest player on tour right now, but fatigue has to be a concern. He’s won 11 consecutive matches to begin the 2020 season, including titles in Adelaide and Doha. The only negative about winning in tennis is that you get the least amount of recovery time before the next tournament. At some point it catches up to you.

Everyone expected another major dud from Zverev, but after two straight double-faultless matches, it appears his service yips are gone. (That’s the funny thing: they disappear just as fast as they appear.) Zverev has yet to drop a set in Melbourne, and while he will probably lose one this match, at +100 he’s still the right pick to defeat Rublev for a fourth consecutive time.

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