All figures from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Sofia Kenin to defeat Ons Jabeur by more than 3.5 total games (-124)
The oddsmakers are typically more accurate in the later stages of the tournament, so place your bets carefully. That said, Kenin should beat Jabeur without too much trouble. Kenin made a statement in her 6-7 (5), 6-3, 6-0 victory over phenom Coco Gauff. (For the purposes of this type of bet, Kenin’s margin of victory against Coco Gauff was -8 games.) After dropping the first set, Kenin dominated Gauff with her trademark ferocity and relentless depth of shot. By taking the -3.5 game spread, Kenin simply needs to break once per set.
Jabeur is certainly a name to remember for the future. Her trending UTR rates her as the 35th best player in the game, even if her No. 78 WTA ranking has some catching up to do. She capitalized on Wang Qiang’s natural post-Serena letdown, but Kenin is hungry to make a name for herself. Kenin to win straight up at -235 is a solid bet, but by living a bit more dangerously and taking the game spread, you can nearly double your payout—without really doubling your risk.
Roger Federer to defeat Tennys Sandgren by less than 8 games (-114)
Playing Federer for the first time must be a quasi-religious experience for any player, which should certainly give pause when considering this bet. However, we have ridden the ultra-fit Sandgren all tournament, to great success. If Sandgren just reaches a tiebreak in one set, Federer would need to win the other two sets very convincingly to pay the opposite bet. Sandgren plays his best tennis in Melbourne, and with a full recovery day after his four-set victory over Fognini, he should hold his own against the Swiss. He’s 4-2 against Top 10 players at Grand Slams.
Federer will almost certainly win this match, but Sandgren has too much game—and pride to let the icon dust him off the court. Both Federer and Sandgren have played 15 total sets this tournament, so fatigue should not be a factor for either player.