Australian Open Best Bets, Day 4: Act on Fritz, Kuznetsova and Bedene

Australian Open Best Bets, Day 4: Act on Fritz, Kuznetsova and Bedene

Kevin Anderson looked vulnerable in his five-set victory over world No. 149 Ilya Ivashka, and Taylor Fritz should be able to capitalize.

All figures from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Svetlana Kuznetsova to defeat Camila Giorgi (-132)

Kuznetsova looked spry in her upset of No. 15 seed Marketa Vondrousova, and though she’s never made it past the quarterfinals in Australia, she could make some noise in a section that includes a hobbled Angelique Kerber. But first she will need to outclass the hard-hitting Giorgi. Kuznetsova’s defense and variety will cause nightmares for Giorgi’s one-dimensional game. Giorgi’s only gear is full throttle, and Kuznetsova is too skilled a player to be flummoxed by sheer pace. Kuznetsova owns a 2-0 head to head record and a slight advantage in both overall and trending UTR. When gambling, all you can ask for is the data to support the hypothesis—and the conviction to act on it.

Aljaz Bedene to defeat Ernests Gulbis (-167)

Bedene came through for us earlier Monday night in his five-set win over James Duckworth and the one-sided Aussie crowd. Now, the Brit turned Slovenian will need to figure out a way to outlast Ernests Gulbis— who has to be getting tired. This is Gulbis’ eighth match since January 6, more than a third of his entire 23-match 2019 season. In defeating Felix Auger-Aliassime, Gulbis played well, but capitalized on a player clearly struggling with confidence. Bedene’s trending UTR outranks Gulbis’ by nearly 100 spots. At -167, Bedene is a solid bet to take care of business and put an end to Gulbis’ totally unexpected run in Melbourne. 

Taylor Fritz to defeat Kevin Anderson (+112)

Anderson impressed in his return to tennis at this year’s ATP Cup, dispatching Benoit Paire and Christian Garin while pushing Novak Djokovic to two tiebreak sets. Someway, somehow, Anderson didn’t miss a beat, despite not playing since Wimbledon. It didn’t make sense. But Anderson finally exhibited signs of rust in his five-set thriller over world No. 149 Ilya Ivashka, where twice he was three points from losing the match. He will now face off against the dangerous and powerful Fritz, the No. 29 seed who cruised to a straight-set victory over the Netherlands’ Tallon Griekspoor. Recency bias could expose this wager, but an Anderson letdown is imminent. Even if you are Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer, missing six months of competition will cost you. And Anderson isn't close to either of those two.