Australian Open semifinal preview: Alexander Zverev vs. Dominic Thiem

In their on-court interviews after their quarterfinal wins, Alexander Zverev and Dominic Thiem both looked a little lighter and a little calmer, and their smiles were a little wider than usual. After beating Stan Wawrinka in four sets, Zverev bantered with John McEnroe about whether he’s still sure he wants to donate all of his prize money for wildfire relief if he wins the tournament (he is). After beating Rafael Nadal in four sets, Thiem, in typically unassuming fashion, said he “needed to get a little lucky” to finally get past Rafa at a Grand Slam.

It was hardly surprising that the German and the Austrian would be so relaxed and visibly relieved. Each of these highly touted young players had just knocked a monkey off his back: Zverev had reached his first Grand Slam semifinal, and Thiem had reached his first Grand Slam semifinal on a hard court, and recorded his first win over Nadal at a major.

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Over the years, Zverev has been talked about as a future No. 1, and Thiem has been talked about as the heir to Rafa’s Roland Garros throne. But neither of them had quite lived up to those sky-high expectations. In recent years, instead of hearing praise for their talents, they were more likely to hear about how they were letting those talents go to waste, and how their generation paled in comparison to their elders in the Big 3.

In search of a breakthrough, each tried to go the super-coach route—Zverev with Ivan Lendl, Thiem with Thomas Muster—but each ultimately decided to stay on their own paths. For the moment, their semifinal runs in Melbourne have justified those decisions. Neither of them needed a wholesale revamp; they just needed to trust in their talents, and the system they had in place.

These aren’t the first Next Genners we’ve seen in the semifinals Down Under recently. Two years ago, Kyle Edmund and Hyeon Chung also made it that far. Today Edmund is ranked 65th and the oft-injured Chung is 127th. Last year it was Stefanos Tsitsipas’ turn to reach the final four; since then the Greek has certainly established himself among the elite, but he’s just 5-4 at the Slams.

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Are Thiem and Zverev here to stay at the majors, or will we see them regress again? Both of those possibilities could be true at the same time. They’ll likely endure disappointing results and early losses, but they’re also very likely to win majors and take their turns at the top eventually. So which is ready to take the next step tonight and go a round farther?

Thiem leads their head to head 6-2; he’s won three of their last four meetings; and he’s won their last two on hard courts. He also has the more impressive victory, over Nadal, at this Australian Open. Thiem played with a supreme mix of power and control from his forehand wing throughout that match, and showed a Big 3-level ability to win the important points. The two have just met once on an outdoor hard court, when Zverev won in Beijing more than three years ago.

There’s a chance Thiem could have a letdown after such a cathartic performance. But when your level is that high, you can come down a little and still get a win. Winner: Thiem