Australian Open Final Preview—Maiden major Kenin? Three-Slam Muguruza?

Was there anyone, anywhere, who called this final when the draw came out? Sofia Kenin is the 14th seed, and as of last week she had never reached a Grand Slam quarterfinal, let alone a semi, let alone a final. If anything, Garbine Muguruza was an even longer shot. While she has two major titles to her name, she lost in the first round at Wimbledon and the US Open last year, and her ranking plunged below the seeding line in Melbourne. Even Conchita Martinez, who has returned to be Muguruza’s coach, believed she would need significantly more time to pick up the shards of her self-belief and return to Slam-winning form.

This is an unexpected final, and one that lacks a star of Serena Williams’ magnitude or a local hero like Ash Barty. But that doesn’t mean it won’t be worth watching. Kenin-Muguruza has the makings of a very competitive match, as well as an entertaining and unpredictable one. They’ve met once before, last year in Beijing, and Kenin won in topsy-turvy fashion, 6-0, 2-6, 6-2.

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How might the rematch play out? Muguruza is sure to be the aggressor. She has beaten three Top 10 opponents with just the right blend of risk and margin for error. Her serve—she had 10 aces against Simona Halep in the semis—and her approach shots, which she has hit with depth and precision, have made her unstoppable. Once she finds her range at a major, she usually doesn’t lose it again.

What can Kenin do to stop, or slow, the Muguruza express? She can be steady, and force her to hit a lot of balls; fortunately for Kenin, that’s a specialty of hers. But, as she showed in her win over Ash Barty, she can also mix things up and keep Muguruza, who isn’t a natural defender or speedster, on the run. Kenin’s drop shot, and her ability to follow her ground strokes to net, were both effective against Barty, and they could be again in the final.

Right now, Muguruza seems to be an unstoppable force, and Kenin seems to be an immovable object. It’s hard to say for sure what will happen when they collide on Saturday, but I’ve heard that objects in motion tend to stay that way.

Winner: Muguruza