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This final will have ramifications in two long-running ATP races, one involving the Big 3, and the other involving the Next Gen.

The first one, of course, is the race currently being run between Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal to see who will wind up with the most major titles. If Djokovic wins, he’ll be at 17, two behind Nadal and three behind Federer. If he loses, he’ll likely feel as if he wasted a golden opportunity. Not only has Djokovic won all seven of his previous Australian Open finals, but Dominic Thiem has never played one, and is still looking for his first Grand Slam win.

The second race is the one currently being run by Thiem and his fellow heirs apparent to see who will be the first to win a major of their own. Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev: they’ve all made inroads over the last two years, but have all come up short when it has mattered most. Thiem has, too. He's lost the last two finals at Roland Garros to Nadal.

Australian Open Final Preview: Djokovic's 17th Slam, or Thiem's first?

Australian Open Final Preview: Djokovic's 17th Slam, or Thiem's first?

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If that doesn’t seem to bode well for Thiem, well…it doesn't. It’s bad enough that he can’t come close to matching Djokovic’s experience on this stage. What’s worse is that he just survived two tough, tight, draining, four-set mini-marathons against Nadal and Zverev. Djokovic, meanwhile, will be working with two days rest, and he hasn’t dropped a set since his opener 12 days ago.

Does Thiem stand any chance at all? His recent form, and his recent record against Djokovic, say yes.

Djokovic leads their head to head 6-4, but Thiem won their last two meetings. The first of them came in a wind storm at last year’s French Open. The second came on an indoor hard court at last year’s ATP Finals. That was the first time in four tries that Thiem had beaten Djokovic on a surface other than clay.

That victory was one of many small steps that the 26-year-old Thiem has taken to reach this moment. He took another in the quarterfinals when he beat Nadal at a major for the first time. Does he have one more in him? Thiem is hitting the ball well enough to win. He’s looking for his forehand more than ever, and firing it for winners when he has an opening. It’s a game-breaking, X-factor type of shot, and one that even Djokovic will struggle to defend against.

Australian Open Final Preview: Djokovic's 17th Slam, or Thiem's first?

Australian Open Final Preview: Djokovic's 17th Slam, or Thiem's first?

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But I don’t think it will be enough, in part because of something Thiem said after his win over Zverev.

“It’s unbelievable, twice in Roland Garros finals, twice facing Rafa,” he said. “Now facing Novak here, he’s the king of Australia, so I’m always facing the kings of the Grand Slams in these finals.”

“I’ll try everything I can to win…if I walk off the court a loser in two days, I have to be patient, trust the process.”

Thiem, in other words, can take some satisfaction in defeat. Djokovic can’t. That could make all the difference.

Winner: Djokovic

Australian Open Final Preview: Djokovic's 17th Slam, or Thiem's first?

Australian Open Final Preview: Djokovic's 17th Slam, or Thiem's first?