Best Bets, ATP Cincinnati: Dan Evans +3.5 games vs. Andrey Rublev

All lines from DraftKings Sportsbook and are of course subject to change.

At +180, I am tempted to pick Dan Evans to upset Andrey Rublev for a few reasons. First off, since the beginning of 2019, Evans has lost in the first round just seven times—he almost always sinks his teeth into a draw. Nobody wants to play the gifted Brit right off the bat.

Secondly, few players match up as well with Rublev’s relentless pace as well as Evans, whose hand-eye coordination and ball control on the tennis court is simply astounding. Perhaps only Roger Federer knifes a short cross-court slice more effectively than Evans, and that shot is the only safe place to hit the ball to Rublev.

And as amazing as Rublev is, he prefers to play with rhythm, something Evans will simply not allow. One of Rublev’s least favorite shots is a low backhand hit from short in the court. Not only is he forced to hit up on the ball from his weaker wing, but oftentimes he has no choice but to follow the shot to the net. It’s either that, or get stuck in no-man's land. Rublev owns one of the world’s best forehands, and his backhand his solid, but his transition game leaves a little to be desired. Evans knows that.

Rublev and Evans have already met twice in 2020: The Russian won 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 in Adelaide, then lost a month later in Dubai, 6-2, 7-6 (9). But even in Rublev’s victory, Evans frustrated him with his short-angle slice. Had Rublev not saved four crucial break points at 1-1 in the third set, Evans could have won both their meetings to start the year.

Evans' low-skidding backhand slice is the perfect counter to Rublev's unrelenting pace.

Evans knows that Rublev would much rather crack winners from the baseline, so he forces him to the net any chance he gets. Rublev does many things well, but transition tennis and tough volleys are not his strong suit.

It's rare to see Rublev react so negatively on the court. He is a poised and stoic competitor, but Evans' slice backhand is a frustrating shot for him to handle.

While there is value in Evans straight up, you won't be a successful tennis bettor picking Rublev to lose in the first round—he's too good. That's why we recommend picking Evans to cover the +3.5 game spread at -122. Tennis is first and foremost a game of matchups, and Evans matches up as well as anyone with the Russian.