All lines from DraftKings Sportsbook and are of course subject to change.
On Friday, Ana Bogdan was making quick work of Kristyna Pliskova before a left foot injury forced her to abandon a 5-2 first-set lead and retire from the match. Pliskova, the 2017 finalist in Prague, will hope to get off to a better start in Saturday’s semifinal against the rock-solid Elise Mertens—who squeaked past a confident Eugenie Bouchard 6-4, 1-6, 6-4.
Although clay isn’t the Belgian’s preferred surface (grass is her favorite), she is exceedingly capable on any type of court, having reached the fourth round or better at all four Grand Slams. At (-250), Mertens is a safe bet to secure her third consecutive victory over the Czech. Mertens cruised past Pliskova twice in 2019, winning 6-2, 7-6 in Doha and 6-2, 6-2 at the US Open.
Laying $100 to win $40 isn’t the greatest ROI, but it’s definitely the safest play on the board. If you prefer a play with a little more juice, a $100 bet on Mertens to win by 3.5 games will pay out $79. She easily covered that spread in both their meetings, but this will be their first meeting on clay, and the extreme wind in Prague could serve as an equalizer for the huge-serving lefty.
No matter the conditions, stylistic matchups remain one of the most important factors in projecting results, and Mertens’ consistency should be enough to outlast the notoriously streaky Pliskova.