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By Steve Tignor Oct 29, 2021

ATP Vienna, Austria

Match of the Day: Dominic Thiem vs. Andrey Rublev, Vienna

Thiem defeated Rublev at this same tournament in 2017, but the Russian's game has grown by leaps and bounds since then.

Published Oct 29, 2020

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Sadly, the highly anticipated ball-bashing extravaganza between Andrey Rublev and Jannik Sinner was cut short when the Italian retired while trailing 2-1 in the first set due to a foot injury. The only positive takeaway is that Russian should be fresh and raring to go in Friday’s blockbuster quarterfinal against home favorite and defending champion Dominic Thiem.

The second seed made quick work of clay-court extraordinaire Cristian Garin, breaking the Chilean in the second game of the match and never looking back. Thiem outclassed the world No. 22, 6-3, 6-2, in just over an hour.

The days of Thiem struggling on quick indoor hard courts are long gone, but there is still no denying that his game is best suited for a slower, grittier surface. He’ll have his work cut out for him against the red-hot Rublev, whose ultra-flat, piercing groundstrokes thrive in the still, wind-less indoor conditions.

Match of the Day: Dominic Thiem vs. Andrey Rublev, Vienna

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Thiem owns a 2-1 head-to-head advantage over Rublev, including a straight-set victory on this very court in 2017, but the 23-year-old enjoyed the last laugh when he upset the world No. 3 last year in Hamburg, 7-6 (3), 7-6 (5). Rublev should enter this matchup with plenty of confidence. If he can beat Thiem on clay he can surely do it indoors.

Thiem, who dropped just 10 points on serve against Garin, will need a similar serving performance on Friday if he is to slow down Rublev. The Russian is a master at depriving his opponents of time, and a high first-serve percentage is one of the most effective weapons against Rublev’s hyper-aggressive tennis.

Still, expect Rublev to control the court-positioning battle, as well as the vast majority of baseline rallies. Thiem’s default mode exists well behind the baseline, while Rublev’s exists right on, or in front of it. Matchups are everything in tennis, and Rublev’s game is extremely well-suited to handle the Austrian’s heavy topspin.

According to the oddsmakers, Rublev (+125) is a slight underdog. But given that he’s been seeing the tennis ball like a beach ball right now, look for the Russian to pull off the upset in Vienna.

The Pick: Andrey Rublev

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