Roland Garros final preview & pick: Sofia Kenin vs. Iga Swiatek

Sofia Kenin and Iga Swiatek have had very different yet equally remarkable runs to their first Roland Garros finals. The Pole has almost taunted her way to the championship, destroying opponents with a swagger and flare composed of equal parts precision and power. She has yet to drop more than five games in a match, and has won 60 percent of all her points in Paris. If she defeats Kenin in similar fashion, it will go down as one of the most dominant Grand Slam performances of all time.

Kenin, on the other hand, has done it the hard way, winning four of her six matches in three sets. Prior to the tournament, and especially after her 6-0, 6-0, loss to Victoria Azarenka in Rome, predicting Kenin to win the tournament could have been grounds for a sobriety test. Clay remains her least favorite surface, but the American—and her remarkably short memory—has once again proved the doubters wrong.

“She just has something you can’t teach,” Lindsay Davenport said. “The bigger the point, the more she wants it.”

Kenin was clutch in her 6-4, 7-5 victory over Petra Kvitova on Thursday. She converted four of five break point opportunities while saving ten of her own.

It’s almost impossible to analyze or predict Kenin's matches because of her unique ability to analyze and adjust her game throughout the match. She is the epitome of Brad Gilbert’s book, Winning Ugly. Oftentimes, finding and exploiting your opponents weakness is more effective than playing to your strengths, but it seems her biggest strength is recognizing what strategy will win her the match on any particular day against any particular opponent. She’s the Swiss Army knife of women’s tennis.

But what strategy will slow down Swiatek? To find the answer, Kenin may have to brain-blast herself back to 2016, where she lost to the Pole, 6-4, 7-5, in the third round of the Roland Garros junior championships. The American certainly has the better backhand, but Swiatek’s ultra-heavy forehand is far more effective on clay.

According to the oddsmakers, Swiatek is a solid -175 favorite to defeat Kenin, but you have to wonder how much of that line is just the algorithms adjusting to the Pole’s outrageous scorelines throughout the fortnight. Swiatek has been undervalued the entire tournament, and has likely cost Vegas quite a bit of money, as she’s easily covered her game spread in her six previous matches. She’s won 72 total games while ceding just 23. Swiatek has been on fire, but Kenin has proven that every match she plays begins with a blank slate.

Kenin has the added edge of major championship experience, while Swiatek is clearly the more natural clay-court player. At the end of the day, though, you cannot underestimate the importance of a lifetime spent training and competing on red clay. Tennis played on a fast hard court versus a slow red-clay court is almost a different sport. Throughout their ITF and WTA professional careers, Swiatek owns an impossibly good 61-11 record on clay while Kenin is an above average 68-42. Her comfort on the surface will likely prove to be the difference maker.

The Pick: Iga Swiatek