Roland Garros Semifinal Preview: Novak Djokovic vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas

On Wednesday, Novak Djokovic appeared vulnerable on a tennis court for the first time in a long time. While the top-seeded Serb rebounded from a desultory opening set to defeat Pablo Carreno Busta, 4-6, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4, he was clearly struggling with an injury to his upper-left arm and neck area. Djokovic appeared physically uncomfortable throughout the match, but Carreno Busta isn’t buying it.

“Probably the last years he’s always doing this when he has problems on court,” Carreno Busta said after the match. "I don’t know, maybe it’s the pressure or something that he needs to do it. But, I mean, he continues playing normal, no? I don’t know if he’s pain really or he has mental. Ask him.”

Those are strong words from the understandably frustrated Spaniard, but Vegas seems to believe it’s more physical than mental. Djokovic is listed as just a -280 favorite to defeat Stefanos Tsitsipas on Friday, a surprisingly low price for a player who hasn’t lost a completed match all year. The Greek’s phenomenal form in his 7-5, 6-2, 6-3 victory over Andrey Rublev could have something to do with it, but a perfectly healthy Djokovic in a Grand Slam semifinal would typically be in the -400 or -500 range against anyone outside of the Big 3.

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Tsitsipas defeated Djokovic in their first-ever meeting, at the 2018 Rogers Cup, and beat him again a year later in Shanghai, but has lost the last two encounters in straight sets, 6-1, 6-2 at the 2019 Paris Masters, and 6-3, 6-4 earlier this year in Dubai.

According to the Greek, Djokovic’s injury doesn’t exist.

“I have to play the way I have to play,” Tsitsipas said in press. “We might as well just forget about it because I’m approaching that match with the same intensity and the same focus that I’ve been doing the last few matches.”

Djokovic is the clear favorite, but Tsitsipas matches up with the world No. 1 about as well as anyone can hope. Historically, Tsitsipas struggles with big serves to his one-handed backhand. The Djokovic serve is underrated, but it’s not big enough to deny Tsitsipas entry into his service games.

Djokovic drop shots early and often on red clay, but Tsitsipas covers the net better than almost anyone in the game. He won 16 of 17 points at net against Rublev on Wednesday.

Bringing the hyper-athletic Greek to the net isn’t always the best idea, as Djokovic found out in Shanghai:

In addition to his supreme net coverage, Tsitsipas has enough firepower to trouble Djokovic from the ground, especially on his forehand wing:

By no means are the odds stacked in his favor, but Tsitsipas certainly believes he can win. That's important, and a reason he's beaten the world No. 1 twice in their five meetings.

In the end, Tsitsipas’ game is versatile enough to cause a lot of problems, but it’s tough to bet against a player who hasn’t actually been beaten yet in 2020.

The Pick: Novak Djokovic