No major quarterfinals, no problem: Don’t count Aryna Sabalenka out

There’s no doubt that Aryna Sabalenka is the hottest player on the women’s tour right now—she’s won three WTA events in a row, which are also the only three WTA events held since Roland Garros last October, and she heads into the Australian swing on a career-best 15-match winning streak.

But she’s never been to the quarterfinals of a major before—could that hurt her in Melbourne?

If recent history on the women's tour is anything to go by, it shouldn’t be a problem at all.

Only three times in the first 196 majors of the Open Era did a woman who had never been to a major quarterfinal win their first major title (from 1968 French Open to 2017 Australian Open):

~ Chris O'Neil (1978 Australian Open)

~ Barbara Jordan (1979 Australian Open)

~ Serena Williams (1999 US Open)

... but it’s happened five times in the last 14 majors:

~ Jelena Ostapenko (2017 French Open)

~ Naomi Osaka (2018 US Open)

~ Bianca Andreescu (2019 US Open)

~ Sofia Kenin (2020 Australian Open)

~ Iga Swiatek (2020 French Open)

Sabalenka’s best result in the 12 majors she’s played before this is one fourth-round finish at the 2018 US Open, where she fell to Osaka, 6-3, 2-6, 6-4—not only was she the only player to take a set off of the eventual champion there, nobody else even won more than six games against her. Apart from that Sabalenka has two third-round finishes, four second-round finishes and five first-round exits.

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After winning the first WTA event of 2021 in Abu Dhabi, the No. 7-ranked Belarusian was asked what she’ll bring from the WTA 500 event to the first Grand Slam of the year at the Australian Open.

“I was only here to play some matches after just one month of preparation, and playing six matches was really important for me—I’m really happy I could play that long, and win this title,” she said. “I’m going to go to Australia confident with only one thing, that I will do everything I can to win matches.

“That’s the only confidence I have right now.”

In addition to five of the last 14 Grand Slams being won by women who had never even been to the quarterfinals of one before, nine of the last 14 Grand Slams have ended up producing first-time champions. That's the five players mentioned above—Ostapenko, Osaka, Andreescu, Kenin and Swiatek—as well as Sloane Stephens at the 2017 US Open, Caroline Wozniacki at the 2018 Australian Open, Simona Halep at the 2018 French Open and Ashleigh Barty at the 2019 French Open.

There’s no reason Sabalenka can’t make that 10 of the last 15 at the 2021 Australian Open.

“My biggest dream, of course, is to win a Grand Slam,” she said in Abu Dhabi.

“I think we all have the same dreams. So nothing really special.”