Australian Open men's preview: Is Djokovic the overwhelming favorite?

Normally, the sight of a Grand Slam draw isn’t cause for amazement. It has to happen, so it happens. But nothing can be taken for granted at this year’s Australian Open. After two weeks of quarantine, and a COVID-19 scare on Wednesday, seeing the players’ names in brackets feels like reason for cautious celebration. Here’s a look at who ended up where in the men’s draw, and how that will shape the next two weeks in Melbourne.

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Have we reached the point where Novak Djokovic should be considered as much a pre-tournament favorite at the Australian Open as Rafael Nadal is at Roland Garros? Not quite: Djokovic has eight titles in Melbourne to Nadal’s 13 in Paris. Perhaps more relevantly, Djokovic lost in the second round Down Under in 2017, and the fourth round in 2018.

Still, he’s the favorite, and even a pretty tough draw like this one isn’t going to change that. There are a number of good and potentially dangerous players in this quarter. Djokovic could face big-serving Taylor Fritz, or even-bigger-serving Reilly Opelka, in the third round. He could face Milos Raonic, who has a history of coming out of the gates fast in Australia, or Stan Wawrinka, who won this tournament in 2014, in the fourth round. And he could get Alexander Zverev, who nearly beat him this week at the ATP Cup, or Gaël Monfils, who has had his own good runs Down Under, in the quarterfinals.

All of that said, if Djokovic is playing well, which he seems to be so far in 2021, he’ll reach the semis.

First-round matches to watch: John Millman vs. Corentin Moutet—if you like scrappy, middle-weight fights with lots of punches and counterpunches, this one might fit the bill; Monfils vs. hard-hitting 21-year-old Finn Emil Ruusuvuori

Semifinalist: Djokovic

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If there’s a top player who has been flying under the media radar so far, it’s Dominic Thiem. In normal times, there would be a lot of attention, as well as some pressure, on the third-seeded Austrian. He nearly won this tournament last year, and he did go on to win the US Open. Now he’ll have a chance to start the season by proving that 2020 wasn’t a fluke, and that he’s a regular major-title contender.

Thiem’s draw gives him a chance to do that. The other seeds in this quarter, from highest to lowest, are: Diego Schwartzman, Denis Shapovalov, Pablo Carreño Busta, Grigor Dimitrov, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Benoit Paire, and Ugo Humbert. There’s plenty of talent there, but no one Thiem has to seriously fear on a hard court. He’s also helped by the fact that Shapovalov plays another up-and-comer, Jannik Sinner, in the first round. Either way, one of them is gone.

Wild Card: Nick Kyrgios. Ranked in the 40s after taking most of 2020 off, the Australian is unseeded. But that won’t make him any less of a threat at home. Kyrgios starts against qualifier Frederico Ferreira Silva, and could face Thiem in the third round.

Qualifier of note: Bernard Tomic. He’ll play Yuichi Sugita in his opener.

First-round matches to watch: Shapovalov vs. Sinner; Dimitrov vs. Marin Cilic

Semifinalist: Thiem

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Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev have been teammates at the ATP Cup this week. Successful ones, too: Russia won its first two ties, and they won their first two singles matches. But at the Australian Open, these friendly rivals could end up being quarterfinal opponents. That’s what’s supposed to happen anyway: Medvedev and Rublev, who are both looking for a breakthrough major title, are the top two seeds in this section.

On paper, there’s not a whole lot in their way. Medvedev has a potentially testy first-rounder against Vasek Pospisil, but the other seeded players here are Filip Krajinovic, Borna Coric, David Goffin, Roberto Bautista Agut, Casper Ruud, and Lorenzo Sonego. Good, but not a murderers’ row of opponents. If they do meet in the quarters, the advantage goes to Medvedev, who is 3-0 against Rublev.

First-round matches to watch: Medvedev vs. Pospisil; Sonego vs. Sam Querrey; Tommy Paul vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili

Semifinalist: Medvedev

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What should we make of Rafael Nadal’s chances to become the all-time major-title winner on the men’s side? At first glance, they don’t look great. Famously snake-bitten in Australia, he hasn’t won here since 2009. Worse, he hasn’t played yet this season because of a back problem.

Rafa’s draw should cheer him up. There are no obvious landmines near him. The first seed he could face, in the third round, is Dan Evans. On paper, his fourth-round opponent will either be Fabio Fognini or Alex De Minaur, though neither is a sure thing to make it that far. And the three most menacing names, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Matteo Berrettini, and Karen Khachanov, are all on the other side of this section. That should give Nadal time, back permitting, to work his way into the tournament.

He may need to be in peak form by the quarters. Tsitsipas and Berrettini, Rafa’s most-likely opponents in that round, have both come out of the gates quickly and are 2-0 in ATP Cup.

First-round matches to watch: Tsitsipas vs. Gilles Simon; Berrettini vs. Kevin Anderson; De Minaur vs. Tennys Sandgren

Semifinalist: Nadal

Semifinals: Djokovic d. Thiem; Medvedev d. Nadal