Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change
In the midst of a 19-match win streak with 11 wins over Top-10 players dating back to the Paris Masters, Daniil Medvedev is bordering on what those in the Esports realm call “God mode.” With his unique combination of consistency, defense and selective aggression, it’s becoming harder and harder to win games— let alone sets—against him.
Not only has the Russian covered his game spread in each match this fortnight (he defeated Vasek Pospisil by 10 games, and Andrey Rublev by nine games) he seems to be breaking the will of his opponents very early in the match.
You could almost see Rublev’s relentless determination exit his body after this ridiculous passing shot.
One match away from his first Australian Open final, Medvedev must defeat Stefanos Tsitsipas for the sixth time in seven matches. Medvedev has owned the Greek in the past, but Tsitsipas got the last laugh at the 2019 ATP Finals.
Medvedev is not committing a lot of unforced errors. Obviously, Tsitsipas must serve well to stand a chance, but more importantly, he’ll need to use his one massive advantage to overcome the Russian: his net game.
Few players, if any, cover the net like Tsitsipas, but he must find his way forward on hard-hit, well-placed approaches.
Crosscourt or inside-out approaches don’t work against Medvedev, who is covering more ground than any player in the tournament. Here, Tsitsipas gives Medvedev too much of an angle to work with and pays the price.
Medvedev has done a tremendous job mixing pace and aggression to compliment his incredible consistency. When you expect the world No. 4 to simply initiate a long rally, he’ll do something like this.
In addition to great serving and net play, Tsitsipas must bring Medvedev forward with his backhand slice. The Russian is far more dangerous at the baseline than he is at the net.
Tsitsipas owns all the tools required to defeat Medvedev, but must recover quickly after his four hour, five-set win over Rafael Nadal. If Tsitsipas is tired, Medvedev will sense it and clamp down even harder. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Medvedev is a sizable -230 favorite. Not only should Medvedev win, he will also likely cover his -3.5 game spread as well.
The Pick: Daniil Medvedev, -3.5 games
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