Lorenzo Musetti is the real deal. With his Gasquet-like one-handed backhand and wonderful flair, he is poised to soon become a force in the upper echelons of the game. But after three qualifying matches and two hard-fought wins over Diego Schwartzman and Frances Tiafoe, the Italian might run out of gas against the in-form Bulgarian.
Dimitrov plays some of his best tennis in Acapulco. He reached the semifinals in 2020 and won the tournament in 2014. The fans love him, and his affinity for a quick hard court will likely pay dividends Thursday night. Dimitrov’s slice has been one of the most effective shots of 2021, and it will serve him well against Musetti. Six matches in six days is a lot to ask of your body, especially on this surface.
Betting on Dimitrov is always a little scary, but his fitness and massive advantage on serve should propel him to victory. There’s not much value at -350 outright, so let's roll the dice and pick Dimitrov to win in straight sets at -120.
In Dubai, Lloyd Harris and Denis Shapovalov will face off for a spot in their first ATP 500 final. Shapovalov has been playing brilliant tennis, and will likely win, but at +205, Lloyd Harris is worth a minimum stake bet.
When Shapovalov loses he tends to overhit and aim for unsafe targets. Nobody in the the tournament is moving as swiftly as Harris, who will make the Canadian work for every single point. Both of these shots by Nishikori would have won the point against most players, but Harris retrieved them all too easily.
The South African has the tools to frustrate Shapovalov. He served 14 aces and just two double-faults against Nishikori, and has defended spectacularly well all tournament. Harris is playing far too well to be a +205 underdog against a player who has reached just two ATP finals in his entire career.
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