One of the more common plays in tennis wagering is to pick against players who reach the final round of the week’s previous tournament. A Sunday finish, combined with travel and less time to adjust to the new conditions, can sometimes prove too much to overcome.
It’s a little different with bonafide superstars like Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev, but after two matches under both their belts in Barcelona, one can’t help but wonder how much gas they have left in their tanks after reaching the Monte Carlo final.
Betting against Rublev is always scary, but there is a reason Jannik Sinner is listed as a slight favorite. It’s tempting to pick Rublev as an underdog, but Sinner has played wonderful tennis this week, defeating Roberto Bautista Agut for the third consecutive time on Thursday.
While “trap bets” are a hotly debated topic, it’s important to recognize instances where the odds are a little too good to be true. Rublev as an underdog against the 19-year-old Italian is one of those instances.
In the day’s second quarterfinal, Tsitsipas will look to win his fourth straight match against Felix Auger-Aliassime, after dropping their first two professional meetings.
The Greek has been very vocal about his struggles against the huge-hitting Canadian, and while Tsitsipas is playing far superior tennis, 3 to 1 odds on a player with Auger-Aliassime’s talent and firepower is a bet worth placing. Tsitsipas will most likely win this encounter, but given his past struggles against the Canadian, this +310 line is worth a minimum-stake wager.
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