On Sunday, we’ll get a pair of championship matchups at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. The day will start with Maria Sakkari taking on Iga Swiatek, and it’ll end with Daniil Medvedev facing Carlos Alcaraz. Both of these matchups happen to be rematches of previous Indian Wells finals, as Swiatek downed Sakkari in the desert in 2022, and Alcaraz beat Medvedev last year. And while both of the players that lost those past matchups will want some revenge, the best way to bet both of these matches is by pairing them together and putting the favorites in a moneyline parlay.
With the women’s final, it’s hard to ignore that Sakkari hasn’t taken a set from Swiatek since 2021. I know Sakkari has played some much better tennis this week than she has all year, and the Greek star finally has some confidence back. But it’s hard to see where she has a clear edge over Swiatek. The Pole is a better server, returner and baseline player, and she’s also in tremendous form right now. I sometimes worry about Swiatek against big servers and powerful baseline players, but Sakkari is somewhat similar to her. The Pole is just better and a title more battle-tested. That gives her a mental edge over Sakkari, too.
However, Swiatek is a massive favorite in this match, so you can’t take her on her own. That’s why I’m pairing Swiatek with Alcaraz.
