Line Calls: Can Carlos Alcaraz snap his title drought at Indian Wells?

The top players in the world have gathered at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, Calf. The BNP Paribas Open is known as the “fifth slam,” as all the stars come out for this Masters 1000 event. In addition to Top 5ers Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev, this field also includes 22-time Grand Slam champion Rafael Nadal.

This is going to be an event you simply can’t miss, and we’re going to be providing you with betting picks throughout all of it.

Last Five Indian Wells Champions

• 2018: Juan Martin del Potro
• 2019: Dominic Thiem
• 2020: Canceled (COVID-19)
• 2021: Cameron Norrie
• 2022: Taylor Fritz
• 2023: Carlos Alcaraz

Indian Wells Betting Odds

• Novak Djokovic +170
• Jannik Sinner +310
• Carlos Alcaraz +430
• Daniil Medvedev +700
• Alex De Minaur +2700
• Alexander Zverev +2700
• Rafael Nadal +3600
• Andrey Rublev +4100
• Taylor Fritz +5000
• Casper Ruud +5000
• Ugo Humbert +5000
• Holger Rune +5000
• Stefanos Tsitsipas +5000
• Ben Shelton +5000
• Hubert Hurkacz +5000

(For the rest of the odds, head over to FanDuel Sportsbook)

Indian Wells Court Conditions

This tournament is played on a Plexipave hard court, which is considered a Category 2 when it comes to ITF Court Pace Rating. That means that this is slow to medium in speed. Combining that with the unique weather in the desert means that this isn’t your standard hard-court tournament. In fact, you can essentially handicap it like it’s a clay-court event. This is a tournament that features very long rallies, and it takes a mentally tough player to emerge with the title.

Indian Wells Players To Watch

Carlos Alcaraz (+430): Alcaraz has his work cut out for him, but he’ll still love his chances of winning in back-to-back years. The Spaniard is in desperate need of a good result, and there might not be an event that suits him better than this one. Slower hard-court tournaments are absolutely perfect for Alcaraz, as it gives him all the time in the world to track down shots. That allows him to set up and really rip his own, and he has the power to hit through the conditions. Alcaraz just needs to find a little something in his service game. The decline in that part of his game has hurt him over the last couple of months, but his serve-and-volley ability should help him out in the desert.

Rafael Nadal (+3600): These conditions normally aren’t bad for Nadal, as he is one of the grittiest players in tennis history. But this version of Nadal can’t grind out points the way he used to. He’s going to need to be more aggressive from the baseline, utilizing his power to end points a little faster than usual. That’s not going to be easy on these courts. A lengthy run at this event will be difficult for the 37-year-old. Nadal also looked like he was dealing with some discomfort late in his exhibition match against Alcaraz. With that in mind, try to fight the urge to play Nadal here. Perhaps he’ll sneak away with a title on clay this season, but don’t expect much from him in California.

Holger Rune (+5000): Rune comes into this event after having looked good in Acapulco, another slow hard-court tournament. That said, we know the Dane is capable of adapting to these conditions. He also happens to be in a decent portion of the bracket. Rune might have to face Nadal in the second round, but that’s a match he should win, given where both of them are right now. Then, he wouldn’t face much of a challenge until the quarterfinals, where a winnable matchup with Taylor Fritz would likely await him. Overall, Patrick Mouratoglou’s presence should bring out the best in Rune, and we have already seen decent results early in the partnership. So, he’s a player that might be worth sprinkling some capital to win his quarter, or even win the event—with the plan to hedge later on.

Cam Norrie (+11000): One long shot that might be worth taking is Norrie to win his quarter. Norrie made it to the quarterfinals here in each of the last two years, and those runs came after he won this tournament in 2021. The southpaw is a very difficult player to beat in slower conditions, which is why he’s most dangerous on clay and slower hard courts. He has the ability to run down every ball and then get opponents off balance with his unorthodox-looking groundstrokes. It also might not be a death sentence that Norrie is in Novak Djokovic’s portion of the draw. While a Djokovic-Alcaraz final is likely, the Serbian hasn’t played since the Australian Open. That rust could cause him to trip up somewhere along the way.