We’re in for an exciting All-American battle in the Round of 16 at the Mutua Madrid Open, as Madison Keys takes on world No. 3 Coco Gauff. Keys is probably at her best on grass courts, where she is 44-14 at the WTA level. But she’s also a little underrated on clay, as she is 67-44 on the dirt in her WTA career. Gauff is definitely a player with an intriguing clay-court game, and she is 38-15 on the dirt early in her WTA career. But I think Keys has the ability to give her some trouble here, so I’m playing the 29-year-old to cover a 4.5-game spread here.
Keys has just looked really solid early in this tournament. She was able to get by Irina-Camelia Begu, a good clay-court player, in a 7-6 (3), 7-6 (6) win in her opening-round match. She then followed it up by taking care of business against Liudmila Samsonova in straight sets. Madrid just offers Keys a perfect clay-court environment. The altitude means that her power is still a huge weapon, and the slower bounce of the court gives her a little extra time. That’s all she needs to continue to punish balls as a returner, but also to track down a couple of extra shots each match.
Of course, the higher bounces on clay are also what make Gauff a dangerous clay-court player. She still goes through some real lulls from the forehand side, and having extra time to load up and set her feet helps there. But I do think Keys is capable of attacking that side of the court and making Gauff second guess herself. I also think Gauff’s shaky serve could come back to haunt her here. Over the last 52 weeks, Keys is breaking 40.0% of the time on clay. So, if Gauff is missing first serves and just placing her second serves into the box, Keys will go on the attack.
All in all, Gauff should probably be expected to win this match. But I think Keys is capable of forcing a tiebreaker, or just winning four games in both sets. When she’s serving well, that’s an easy mark for her to clear. And Keys can also put a dent in this spread by winning a set, which is definitely a possibility. Gauff’s lows on the court can be very low, and Keys is experienced enough to take advantage.
Pick: Keys +4.5 Games (-115)