Do you recall that Djokovic beat Gasquet 6-1, 6-2, 6-3 in the round of 16 at Roland Garros last month? I had forgotten it myself. The match was obviously over in a hurry. The scores don’t bode well for Gasquet in the first semifinal tomorrow, or for the paying customers hoping to see a competitive match. In fact, virtually nothing bodes well for the Frenchman. Djokovic is 12-1 against Gasquet, and his only loss came eight years ago. Plus, Gasquet has logged some serious court time at Wimbledon this week. He survived four tough sets against Nick Kyrgios on Monday, and five tougher sets against Stan Wawrinka on Wednesday. As well as Gasquet has played—and this may be the best tournament of his career—he’s going to be up against it on Friday. Winner: Djokovic
What could be a worse omen for a player than Gasquet’s last meeting with Djokovic? Murray’s last meeting with Federer. In November, at the World Tour Finals in London, he lost by the embarrassing score of 6-0, 6-1. More ominous for Murray, though, is the fact that Federer has won their last three meetings, and hasn’t lost to Murray since the Australian Open at the start of 2013. In those days, it seemed that the younger man may have passed the older by, but that didn’t turn out to be the case.
Their record against each other on Centre Court isn’t as dire for Murray. They’ve split two matches; in 2012, Federer won in four sets in the Wimbledon final, before Murray turned the tables and won in three straight sets in the Olympic gold-medal match. Each knows his way around a grass court, obviously, and while the crowd will likely be with Murray overall, there should be enough support for Federer to keep it from feeling like a home match.
As far as form goes, it’s hard to argue against Federer. He’s dropped one set, and looked as casually imperious as ever. Murray, meanwhile, has managed his matches well, but has seemed a little too tense to let loose with his best tennis; he has also been so keyed up in the opening sets that his subsequent drops in energy have come to seem inevitable.
Over the last five years, a time when Federer has won just one major title, the Swiss has often looked stellar early in Slams, only to come up short against top competition in the late rounds. He has pointed to this tournament all year, and has done his best to conserve his energy over the fortnight. In a quest for an 18th major, there’s not much more that a 33-year-old can do.
But is it enough to beat a 28-year-old Murray, who is having what may go down as his most consistent season, and who has won 36 straight matches against players not named Djokovic? Federer seems more likely to be the one who has a great afternoon, and more likely to be the one who doesn’t. It might be a good day to be a match manager. Winner: Murray