Is Alexander Zverev match-tested, or overplayed? And will it matter against Carlos Alcaraz?

Did you have either of these two on your dark-horse list?

Linda Noskova vs. Dayana Yastremska

Fans of a certain age might call this the Gomer Pyle quarterfinal—“Surprise, surprise,” is about all you can say when you see these two names this deep at a Slam. Noskova is 19 and ranked 50th. Yastremska is a qualifier ranked 93rd. Neither has been this far a major before, and as far as I’m aware neither was on anyone’s list of dark-horse candidates at the start of the tournament.

Which one will write another chapter in her Cinderella story? The Czech and the Ukrainian both like to pummel the ball, and, not surprisingly, both can blow hot and cold—that’s especially true for the go-down-swinging Yastremska. In beating Iga Swiatek, Noskova showed that she’s more than a basher. She has a nose for when to change the pace and where her opponent is going with the ball. But she may just be a little too new to this experience, and a little less single-minded about extending it, than her opponent.

Noskova may have more game in the long-term, but Yastremska is more likely to do anything—including asking for a medical time-out at an opportune moment—to win. Winner: Yastremska

One has the bigger game, but the other has the win

Qinwen Zheng vs. Anna Kalinskaya

Unlike the other two women’s quarterfinalists, Zheng was a popular sleeper choice when the Aussie Open began. She’s a powerful athlete who has seemed ready for her Slam breakthrough for going on two years now. She also came into the season with a chip on her shoulder after her coach, Wim Fissette, dumped her to work with Naomi Osaka, a transgression Zheng said she would “never forget.” Kalinskaya’s presence here, by contrast, is a bit of a stunner. The Russian is ranked 75th, had never won a match at the AO before this year, and, at 25, had never been past the second round at any major.

In truth, neither has faced down a murderer’s row of opponents to get here. Zheng hasn’t played a seed, and Kalinskaya has beaten just one, No. 26 Jasmine Paolini. Kalinskaya won her only previous meeting with Zheng, in three sets in 2022, but Zheng has the bigger game and the higher ceiling. Winner: Zheng

Is Zverev match-tested, or overplayed? And will it matter?

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev

Like just about everyone else, Zverev regularly sings Alcaraz’s praises. Unlike just about everyone else, the German has had a good deal of success against the Spaniard. He’s 4-3 in their head to head, and he won their most recent meeting, at the ATP Finals in Turin, 6-4 in the third set. They’ve split two matches at the majors, but Alcaraz’s easy win at last year’s US Open comes with a bit of an asterisk, as Zverev was recovering from a marathon, late-night, five-set win over Jannik Sinner the round prior.

Will we have a repeat of that scenario on Wednesday? Zverev is once against coming off a marathon five-set win, this time over Cam Norrie. In fact, two of his four victories have ended in fifth-set match tiebreaks. Throw those in with his United Cup heroics, and you might wonder: Is Zverev properly match tough, or is he overplayed for a moment like this?

Alcaraz doesn’t have the same worry. He has had a test, from Lorenzo Sonego, but he has cruised in his last two rounds and has played five fewer sets than Zverev. That said, if he’s ready physically, Zverev can match up well with Alcaraz. He’s consistent enough to make Alcaraz play, he hits with depth and heavy spin, and he can bail himself out with his serve. But if Alcaraz is clicking, and can avoid the dips in form that plagued him over the second half of 2023, nothing Zverev does will matter. Winner: Alcaraz

Not much separates these lanky giants when they face off

Daniil Medvedev vs. Hubert Hurkacz

Medvedev is seeded six spots higher, and has accomplished significantly more in his career than Hurkacz. But when they go head to head, there’s not much between these two beanpoles. Hurkacz leads their overall head to head 3-2, while Medvedev has won two of three on hard courts. Three of their five matches have gone the distance.

Both guys serve big, and then rally in their own unorthodox and sometimes ungainly ways. Medvedev uses his wing span to cover the baseline, while Hurkacz tries to do the same at the net when he can. Each likes to construct points rather than bash first and ask questions later. Hurkacz will need to take his chances to beat the steadier Medvedev, and the quicker courts in Melbourne Park should help. But Medvedev seems to have weathered his worst emotional storms and found smooth sailing. Winner: Medvedev