by Pete Bodo
As most of you well know, the draw for Roland Garros has been out for a few hours now, and the hysteria has begun. Roger Federer has to play Feliciano Lopez, who had him on the ropes in Rome, in the first round? Oh. My. God.
Rafa Nadal meets John Isner, Mr. Unbreakable Ace Machine, to get things started? How unfair can you get!
What's this? Juan Martin del Potro, who's recovering from a hip injury, meets Ivo Karlovic, who established the record for most aces in a single match on a clay court (until Mr. Unbreakable Ace Machine came along last year, at Wimbledon)? Yikes!
It gets worse. Some of you are already wringing your hands over match-ups that are a country mile from guaranteed to take place. How about Rafa having to meet two-time defending runner-up—and the only man ever to beat him at Roland Garros—Robin Soderling in the. . . quarterfinals. And you've got the nerve to say it's a fair world?
How can Andy Murray get Milos Raonic in the third round—it just ain't fair! It's almost as bad as that potential pairing of del Potro and Novak Djokovic at the same stage, provided Delpo can get by Karlovic and French wild card Benoit Paire doesn't pull off the greatest upset in men's tennis history by taking down Djokovic in the second round—that is, if Paire first finds a way to upend Victor Hanescu. . . AND DON'T THINK THAT CAN'T HAPPEN!!!!!
Well, it's sure to go on like that, at least for a while. But there's another way to approach these tournaments, which is to look at the larger questions and themes in play. This morning I filed a post over at ESPN on the five main story lines we're likely to see emerge in ATP play at the French Open. So let's continue that theme here, with a look at the five most likely stories we'll follow on the WTA side of the fence.
1. Can Caroline Wozniacki Justify Her No. 1 Ranking? Okay, I'm sick of it by now, the endless questions about Caro's legitimacy as the No. 1-ranked player when she has yet to win a major singles title. But for some reason, popular opinion has determined that you're only a vaild No. 1 if you've won a major. So if Wozniacki wins this or any other upcoming one, it's sure to certify her status. She might as well try to get it over with.
Initially, I thought it was a mistake for Wozniacki to play Brussels this week (she'll play Peng Shaui for the title tomorrow), right before the start of Roland Garros. But now I can't help but think of New Haven, where Wozniacki more or less launched her push for the top ranking in 2009. She won the event and went straight to New York where, days later, she kicked off the campaign that landed her in the U.S. Open finals (l. to Clijsters). A confidence-boosting win in Brussels could be just what Wozniacki needs to have a good French Open, even if the clay isn't her preferred surface.
Wozniacki has struggled since she kicked off her clay campaign with that nice win in Charleston, and much has been read into that pair of losses to Julia Goerges. It seems that the other girls were sure paying attention a few weeks ago in Madrid, when Goerges revealed the strategy that yielded two consecutive upsets of the No. 1 (see, Rafa, you aren't the only one with troubles!): "I hit some high balls to her backhand to get her out of her rhythm on that side, then I went for my shots. I waited for my chances and played my game really well."
So that's the book on Wozniacki now—keep her pinned to the backhand side and don't be too timid to pull the trigger when you have an opening to make a placement. Wozniacki may get one of two potentially intriguing opponents in the third round: former champion and unpredictable talent Svetlana Kuznetsova or Aravane Rezai, who's capable of playing just the kind of hit-or-miss tennis that worked for Goerges in those two recent wins over Wozniacki. That Goerges landed in the same quarter of the draw as Wozniacki makes this narrative that much more interesting.
2. Will This be Kim Clijsters' Deferred Moment of Clay-Court Glory? This could easily have been the first and most compelling of questions, were it not for the fact that Wozniacki represents the immediate future of the WTA, while Clijsters lets us know often enough that she's just playing out her string, and has often expressed her ambivalence to the whole concept of being a WTA tour tennis player. Fair enough, but you know what they say—either lead, follow, or get out of the way.
Clijsters came within a whisker of winning this title in her second try, when she was ranked No. 14 and ended up playing the final, which she lost to Jennifer Capriati, 12-10 in the third. She came close on a few other occasions. She was blown out by Justine Henin in two of her other deep runs in Paris (once in semi and once in a final), and she lost a three-set, fourth-round battle with Lindsay Davenport as well.
This is a great opportunity for Clijsters, who rivals Maria Sharapova when it comes to success and seasoning. But the big question is, will her ankle hold up? Her medical team has announced that she'll be playing with the ankle taped. Is that a bad sign for Clijsters, or just gamesmanship? Is she building in an excuse, should she falter in her quest to win the French Open at least once? One thing we know for sure is that this is a woman who has learned a thing or two about spin and PR.
Clijsters has had significant, exploitable lapses in almost all of her events since her comeback. She may get through them in Paris, as she has elsewhere, but the opportunity in Paris this year is obvious and alluring. Her rivals, or aspiring contenders, know that the title is up for grabs and that may make them more determined and bold than usual.
3. Can Victoria Azarenka Make Her Big Breakthrough? Azarenka is nothing like her pal and rival, Wozniacki, which is why I like Wozniacki better than I do Azarenka. Since 2008, Wozniacki has won 15 tournaments, 10 of them Premier level events. Azarenka has won just seven in her entire career so far, and only two big ones (Miami in 2009 and 2011) And a at 21 she's almost exactly a full year older than Wozniacki.
But while Wozniacki is steady and consistent, Azarenka is explosive and tempestuous. The main question on the eve of Roland Garros when it comes to Azarenka is two-fold: Can she hold up, physically, and can she keep her temper from getting the best of her?
In her last six events (beginning with Indian Wells), Azarenka has lost just one match that she was able to complete; she defaulted due to injury three times in those six events, but only once before the quarterfinals. Her lone complete-match loss was to Petra Kvitova in the final of Madrid. It really does appear that the much-discussed heart-to-heart Azarenka had with herself following her first-round loss in Doha has resulted in a new-found ability to keep her temper and negativity in check.
It looks like the meltdowns are less of a danger these days than the breakdowns, but the French Open can be grueling, and that elbow injury that ended Azarenka's tournament prematurely in Rome is a bad omen—especially if the clay is damp and the weather cool in Paris.
!Ria 4. Is the Maria Sharapova Renaissance For Real? Very few people expected Sharapova to win Rome last week, for a host of very sound reasons, starting with the degree of risk in her game. To wit, the longer any given rally goes on, the less chance Sharapova has of winning the point, because she goes for broke and you just can't keep doing that—unless you're Novak Djokovic.
I'm only half-kidding about that. If Djokovic can play such fearless tennis and win, why can't Sharapova?
The most obvious answer: Djokovic is a much better mover than Sharapova (even in relative terms). But keep in mind that it's easier to punch through defenses in the WTA game, at least until you're up against a Wozniacki, a Jankovic, or a Kuznetsova (on a good day).
The second most obvious answer is that Sharapova has been almost painfully up-and-down for about two years now, thanks to that bum right shoulder and the tricks it's played with her game—and mind.
Could it be that Sharapova can recapture her form of years past? If so, she will have two enormous advantages going in—her experience and fearlessness. Sharapova has almost always gone deep at Roland Garros, and this year she looks to have relatively easy going until at least the third round. We won't fully know until the end of Wimbledon, but Rome may have been the start of something big for her, and it's not a moment too soon.
5. Can a Dark Horse Win it All? That question is a natural extension of the dominant theme of this Roland Garros for the WTA, which is that it's a wide, wide open event. Neither of the former champions in the draw, defending champ Francesa Schiavone and Svetlana Kuznetsova (2009), is even likely to be picked as a favorite—by anyone.
That means that the hopes of some familiar players who have yet to taste Grand Slam singles glory—Jelena Jankovic, Li Na, and Sam Stosur among them—will be running high. So will the dreams of some real long shots who could break through, including Marion Bartoli (seeded No. 11), Agniezska Radwanska (No. 12) and Andrea Petkovic (No. 15). But the best long-shot choice of all may be Petra Kvitova (No. 9), the lefty with a big game who won Madrid (by beating Azarenka in the final) a few weeks ago.