Grand Ambition

If the men’s draw is a two-player race, the women’s draw at the U.S. Open is all about the No. 1 seed, Serena Williams. As long as she’s in the event, the story of the tournament will be her quest to win the first calendar-year Grand Slam in 25 years. Let’s see how her chances look, and whether anyone might be in a position to upset her.

Nothing has come easily for Serena during her three-major run in 2015, so why would the fourth leg be any different? There’s a lot happening in her quarter of the draw: She could face Sloane Stephens in the third round, Madison Keys or Agnieszka Radwanska in the fourth round, and possibly Belinda Bencic—who just beat her in Toronto—Karolina Pliskova, or her sister Venus in the quarterfinals.

On second glance, though, that may not be quite the gauntlet it seems. Stephens has to beat fellow American CoCo Vandeweghe in the first round; Keys is terminally erratic; Radwanska has had a down year and is seeded just 15th, and Venus had to pull out of her last tournament with a viral illness. And while Bencic and Pliskova have been the two best up-and-comers of the season, Serena would only have to face one of them in the quarterfinals. By then, she might be rolling.

Serena says she just wants to get this tournament, and all of the pressure surrounding it, over with. If the last three Slams are any indication, she’ll have to survive a scare or three along the way, most likely in the first week, and possibly against someone we never even considered a threat—the hard-hitting Mirjana Lucic-Baroni in the second round, perhaps? But I thought the way Serena played and won last week in Cincinnati, with quality tennis and a little bit of grit when needed, boded well for her chances in New York.

Sleeper threat: Lucic-Baroni, who could play Serena in the second round.

First-round match to watch: Stephens vs. Vandeweghe

If Serena is the overwhelming favorite to win, Maria Sharapova would seem to be the most likely to be upset early. The Russian has been busy with off-court promotions this summer, but she hasn’t been seen on a court yet; she had to withdraw from Cincy last week with a leg injury. She’ll need to recover right away, because she plays Daria Gavrilova, who beat her in Miami in March, in the first round.

If Sharapova does fall, who can take advantage? Ana Ivanovic is the second seed in this quarter, but she has a potentially tough first-rounder against Dominika Cibulkova. Other seeds include 2015 semifinalist Ekaterina Makarova, 2008 finalist Jelena Jankovic, and the up-and-coming Elina Svitolina, whose game would seem to be well-suited to the hard courts at Flushing Meadows.

Also here: Eugenie Bouchard. Just getting past her first-round opponent, Alison Riske, would be a success.

First-round match to watch: Sharapova vs. Gavrilova

Last year at this time, Caroline Wozniacki was on the rise again, and she would ride her summer momentum all the way to the Open final. This year her prospects look dimmer; she’s the fourth seed, but coming into this week’s tournament in New Haven she had lost three straight first-round matches.

As with Sharapova in the second quarter, who could take advantage of an early loss by this section’s top seed? Don’t expect too much from Petra Kvitova; she has spent the summer recovering from mono, and has never been enamored of the U.S. hard-court game. Wimbledon finalist Garbine Muguruza is here, but she has also hit a bump in the North American road of late. Sam Stosur, who has shown signs of her old form in recent months, may be a solid dark-horse pick, but you never know what’s coming next with Sam. She won the whole thing in 2011, but also lost to Vicky Duval in 2013. She's also lost two first-round matches in the U.S. this summer.

Also here:

—Aleksandra Krunic. The Serb upset Kvitova here last year, and could play her again in the third round.

—Laura Robson, who will continue her comeback from wrist surgery against Elena Vesnina.

First-round match to watch: Andrea Petkovic vs. Caroline Garcia

Where did the other contenders go? Many are stacked up at the bottom of the draw—as far, it seems, from Serena as possible. No. 2 Simona Halep, two-time U.S. Open finalist Victoria Azarenka, French Open finalist Lucie Safarova, four-time 2015 champion Angelique Kerber, and French Open semifinalist Timea Bacsinszky are all here.

The two questions that immediately come to mind are:

(1) How much do we trust Halep? She has played well away from the majors, and reached the finals in both Toronto and Cincinnati this summer. But she lost early at the French Open and Wimbledon, as well as in last year’s U.S. Open. She could face a tricky third-rounder against Alizé Cornet, who beat her in Madrid earlier this year.

(2) When will Victoria Azarenka put it all together? I’ve said many times that it was inevitable that she would be back at the top, but she’s still ranked 20th and is coming off yet another injury; last week, in a recurring story, an upper leg problem put her out of Cincy just when she seemed to be picking up steam.

Semifinals: S. Williams d. Svitolina; Halep d. Stosur

Final: S. Williams d. Halep