Indian Wells Bracketology

After the Grand Slam opener Down Under in January and a month of dueling appearance fees in February, the tours are set to begin 2007 in earnest in the California desert this week. It’s the first Masters event for the men, and one of only a handful of dual-gender tournaments all year. The weather looks good, the men are all there, and the women…well, the men are all there.

Looking down the respective draws you see two vastly different tournaments. The men’s second seed, Rafael Nadal, is in a quarter that features two guys who have beaten him five straight times; No. 2 women’s seed Svetlana Kuznetsova (Svets is indeed the second seed) is looking at Olga Poutchkova and Ai Sugiyama (yep, she’s still playing) standing in between her and the quarters. In other words, this tournament is about the men. Here’s a section-by-section breakdown of the next week and a half in pro tennis:

The Men
First Quarter: Well, maybe Roger Federer is making tennis boring, after all. His most likely round-of-16 opponent will be Lleyton Hewitt, a guy who Federer has systematically driven from the sport over the last three years.

The bottom half of the section could be fun. James Blake is the highest seed, followed by Novak Djokovic. That makes for an interesting match—this spring should give us the best look we’ve had at how Djoko will fare against the Top 10. But to get there he might have to get by Dmitry Tursunov, another guy trying to follow-up a breakthrough season. If they play, it will be reckless explosiveness (Tursunov) versus all-around, play-within-yourself competence (Djoko). It all depends on how Tursunov is hitting

Semifinalist: Roger Federer

Second Quarter: We have tremendous, unpredictable talent floating around here—Davydenko, Safin, Murray, Haas, and Gonzo (told you this tournament was about the men). Davydenko is the best of these guys day in, day out, but he still hasn’t risen to an occasion. He could play Sam Querrey in the second round, which I’d like to see—punch versus counterpunch on a grand scale. Safin/Murray is possible in the third round; I like Murray there.

The bottom half is set up as a rematch of the Aussie Open semis between Haas and Gonzalez. This is the first major chance these guys have had to follow up on their breakthroughs Down Under; I’ll be curious to see if either can keep it going through the spring. For some reason I think Haas will get revenge on Feña and make the quarters.

Semifinalist: Andy Murray

Third Quarter: Ah, the long-awaited Nalbandian-Ljubicic section! It’s kind of like the Kuznetsova-Dementieva quarters that magically appear at every Slam. I guess they just can’t be avoided. But there are a couple other notable names facing each other in between. Kuerten-Del Potro is legend vs. prodigy, South American-style, the winner to play Gasquet. And…what else? Spadea-Koubek? Lopez-Rochus? OK, this may be a section to avoid, at least until the third round, when we should get Roddick-Malisse and Nalbandian versus a potentially resurgent Mardy Fish—I might even take Fish there, against my better judgment. Then there’s that pesky Olivier Rochus, who Roddick may have to knock down in the second round—the little man can play.

Semifinalist: Andy Roddick

Fourth Quarter: As I mentioned, Nadal, if he gets past countryman Fernando Verdasco, is likely facing either Youzhny or Juan Carlos Ferrero, both of whom beat him on hard courts last summer. If he squeezes between them, he could have good old Tomas Berdych, who has beaten Rafa three straight times. This is the first time I don’t have faith in Nadal. I feel like he’s lost the conviction that he’s the second-best player in the world on all surfaces. Perhaps he’s more of a confidence player than I realized, In other words, he needs to reassure himself of his abilities by constantly winning—he’s more of an Agassi than a Sampras or Federer. But one good tournament may be all he needs to set himself straight.

One for the hardcore: the first round outer-court dust-up between José Acasuso and Sebastien Grosjean. See you there!

Semifinalist: Mikhail Youzhny

The Women
First Quarter: Maria Sharapova, the first seed and world No. 1, is at the top of the draw. The only thing keeping her from blitzing past the Pennettas and Zvonarevas of her section may be her serve. It broke down in Australia, but it probably won’t hurt her here until the quarters.

That’s where she could play two relatively strong challengers in Li Na or Jelena Jankovic. Both are steadily improving, if still a little shaky—Li because she has trouble finishing, Jankovic because she’s emotionally combustible. I hope they play in the round of 16.

Semifinalist: Maria Sharapova

Second Quarter: The wily veteran, Martina Hingis, is surrounded by big-hitting children named Peer, Safarova, and Chakvetadze. Hingis should cruise to the quarters, then face the winner of those three. A Safarova-Peer third round will appeal to WTA aficionados—see y’all there.

Semifinalist: Martina Hingis

Third Quarter: So here it is, the Petrova-Dementieva section—we knew it was coming. Talented, erratic kids like Ivanovic and Golovin are also hanging around, too, as well as Alicia Molik, still in the middle of a long comeback. I’ll be curious to see how American Vania King does; she’s shown improvement here and there, and faces K. Bondarenko in the first round, potentially a winnable match.

Semifinalist: Nadia Petrova

Fourth Quarter: With Kuznetsova, Vaidisova, and Safina ensconced here, there are slugfests on the horizon. Sveta might get Olga Poutchkova in the third round, who I haven’t seen play recently. I still like Kuznetsova to go through, though. She plays well on U.S. hard courts (she won Key Biscayne last year), and just when you forget she exists, that’s when she shows up and plays some ball.

Semifinalist: Svetlana Kuznetsova

I’m flying out for the desert tomorrow. I opened my Coppertone bottle last night—you have to love the smell of summer on a freezing New York day.

I’ll be back blogging each day, as will Pete and Kamakshi and half of Tennis World. You can't get away from us! We will hunt you down and tell you about tennis, no matter where you are.